Global warming nears 1.5°C threshold as countries remain off track to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report. Even if governments fully implement their latest national climate plans and meet their net-zero targets, global temperatures are projected to peak at around 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. The report warns that crossing 1.5°C, even temporarily, could intensify heatwaves, wildfires, flooding, glacier loss and other climate risks.

Climate Impacts Could Become More Severe Beyond 1.5°C

The consequences of sustained warming above 1.5°C extend well beyond higher average temperatures.

• UNEP says the planet could experience major changes to ice sheets, glaciers, sea ice, snow and permafrost.
• Glaciers could lose more than a quarter of their mass by 2100, potentially contributing 9 to 12.5 centimetres to sea-level rise while permanently changing water availability in vulnerable regions.
• The report also points to faster sea-level rise, increasingly severe heat and wildfires, and a greater risk of ecosystem collapse, including damage to coral reefs.
• More concerning are potential tipping points involving the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon rainforest.
• While scientists cannot precisely predict when or how strongly these systems could respond, some changes could become effectively irreversible.

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Global Warming Nears 1.5°C Threshold as Emissions Gap Persists

UNEP’s Limiting Overshoot report identifies an “overshoot, peak, and decline” pathway as the best remaining approach for limiting how high and how long temperatures remain above 1.5°C. It calls for immediate and sustained reductions in greenhouse gases, including methane, followed by net-negative emissions and carefully governed carbon dioxide removal to gradually bring temperatures down.

The difficulty is that current national pledges remain insufficient. UNEP’s assessment found that even full implementation of the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by September 2025 would leave a substantial emissions gap. Existing and planned policies are expected to keep global emissions broadly stable through 2030 rather than delivering the steep reductions needed.

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UN Calls for Faster Climate Action

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said recent extreme heat, wildfires and deadly floods should be treated as warnings of what could lie ahead. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen similarly stressed that the goal now must be to make any period above 1.5°C as small and short as possible through stronger emissions cuts, adaptation and resilience measures.

The global warming nears 1.5°C threshold report does not conclude that returning below 1.5°C is impossible. UNEP says temperatures can still be brought down after an overshoot if countries accelerate mitigation and eventually achieve net-negative emissions. However, the longer emissions remain high, the greater the risks of permanent damage and escalating adaptation costs, making faster action increasingly important.

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