G20 carbon emissions from passenger transport could fall by 15-20% by 2050 through changes in everyday travel behaviour, according to a new study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Its higher-impact scenario estimates that hybrid work, carpooling and greater bus use together could prevent around 538 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) every year by 2050, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of projected G20 passenger transport emissions under business as usual.

Carpooling Offers the Largest Individual Reduction

Among the three measures examined in CEEW’s Mitigation Potential of Behavioural Change in Passenger Transport in G20 Countries, carpooling has the greatest standalone potential. Raising average vehicle occupancy by 50% from current baseline levels could save approximately 237 MtCO2 annually in 2050.

If countries move towards the same average car occupancy level, the potential rises to around 411 MtCO2 per year. However, most of these reductions would come from economies where private car ownership is already widespread.

Developed countries and China account for approximately 90-92% of the carpooling savings because of their higher vehicle ownership and lower average occupancy. CEEW says the finding reinforces the importance of changing travel behaviour in economies where transport systems are heavily dependent on private cars.

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Hybrid Work Can Reduce Commuting Demand

Hybrid work provides another sizeable opportunity for G20 carbon emissions.

• CEEW estimates that reducing commuting intensity through partial work-from-home arrangements could cut around 322 MtCO2 annually in 2050, approximately 12% below the business-as-usual scenario.
• More than 65% of those savings would come from developed countries and China.
• China alone contributes about 96 MtCO2 of potential reductions, followed by the US at roughly 45 MtCO2 and the EU-15 at around 32 MtCO2.

The study does not assume that employees work remotely every day. Instead, it considers sustained reductions in commuting frequency, meaning even a few remote-working days each week could reduce overall passenger travel demand.

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India Has a Different Transport Opportunity

The study highlights a sharp contrast between developed economies and developing countries. In 2024, developed countries and China represented only 34% of the world’s population but more than 60% of global road transport emissions.

India had around 33 motor vehicles per 1,000 people, compared with 860 in the US, 704 in France and 223 in China. This means there is less immediate scope for emission cuts from changing established car-dependent lifestyles, but a larger opportunity to prevent future dependence on private vehicles.

India’s hybrid-work potential is estimated at about 71 MtCO2 in 2050, largely because of its population size. However, its per-capita savings potential remains much lower than that of richer, more car-dependent economies.

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Behaviour Change Could Shape Future Transport

The geographical distribution of the potential is significant. The US and EU-15 alone could account for 61-63% of combined savings, while developed countries and China could contribute 80-88% overall across the scenarios.

For high-emitting economies, the findings point to immediate opportunities through carpooling, flexible working and stronger public transport use. For countries such as India, the priority is different: expanding efficient shared and public mobility before rising car ownership creates a deeper dependence on private vehicles.

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