China’s solar capacity surges to 1.28 TW in the latest power-sector milestone, overtaking coal for the first time and accounting for around 31.5% of the country’s total installed generating capacity. China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) said cumulative photovoltaic capacity reached 1.286 TW at the end of July, just above 1.285 TW of coal-fired capacity. The crossover is significant for the world’s largest electricity system, but it comes at a complicated moment for the solar industry, which is dealing with slower installations, grid constraints, storage requirements and manufacturing overcapacity.

Of the 1.286 TW solar fleet, 704 GW comes from utility-scale PV and 582 GW from distributed solar. China had 4.078 TW of total installed generating capacity at the end of July, with wind at 687.2 GW, hydropower at 455.5 GW and nuclear at 66.14 GW.

Solar Overtakes Coal in Installed Capacity

China’s solar capacity surges to a 1.28 TW milestone, ending roughly a century in which coal remained China’s largest source of installed generating capacity. It follows two other major shifts: total renewable energy capacity overtook coal in 2023, while combined wind and solar capacity surpassed thermal power in 2025.

However, the numbers need to be read carefully. Solar now has the largest installed capacity, but coal still produces substantially more electricity because conventional plants generally operate for more hours and can provide power when renewable output falls.

Solar generated 802.4 TWh during the first seven months of 2026, up 15.5% year on year and equivalent to around 13% of national electricity consumption. Coal-fired plants, meanwhile, generated about 2.5 PWh in the first half of the year and accounted for 49.7% of total generation.

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China’s Solar Expansion Has Accelerated Dramatically

The scale of the change is striking.

• Revised NEA statistics show China had only 17.45 GW of cumulative PV capacity at the end of 2013.
• Coal stood at around 790 GW, representing roughly 63% of installed capacity, while solar accounted for about 1.4%.

China’s solar fleet has since expanded almost 74-fold.

• PV capacity reached 77.4 GW in 2016, passed 130 GW in 2017 and exceeded 250 GW in 2020.
• It then accelerated following the country’s 2020 carbon-neutrality pledge, rising from 392 GW in 2022 to 609 GW in 2023, 887 GW in 2024 and around 1.2 TW by the end of 2025.

The global significance is equally large.

• IRENA estimates worldwide solar capacity reached around 2.4 TW at the end of 2025, meaning China’s 1.2 TW fleet represented approximately half of global installed solar capacity.

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The Solar Industry Is Entering a Difficult Adjustment

China’s record capacity is arriving alongside a sharp slowdown in new installations. The country installed about 71.8 GW of PV during the first half of 2026, compared with 212.2 GW during the same period of 2025, a decline of roughly 66%.

The previous year’s exceptional installation rate was partly driven by developers rushing to complete projects before the shift toward market-based renewable electricity pricing. But tighter grid-connection conditions and weaker project economics are now adding pressure.

Grid Integration and Manufacturers’ Dilemma

Grid integration is becoming particularly important.

• China’s average PV utilization rate dropped to 91.4% in the first half of 2026 from 94% a year earlier, highlighting the need for more transmission capacity, storage, flexible generation and better electricity-market mechanisms.

Manufacturers are facing their own correction.

• China Photovoltaic Industry Association data showed polysilicon production falling 9.8% year on year in the first half, while module output declined 35.1%.
• Former association secretary-general Wang Bohua described the industry as undergoing a “deep adjustment” after the exceptional growth of 2025.

China Electricity Council officials have argued that wind and solar have not yet effectively replaced conventional generation during critical periods. That puts greater importance on energy storage, grid-forming technologies, stronger transmission networks and more flexible electricity markets.

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