WMO warns of intensified El Niño development as the tropical Pacific enters a new warming phase that could reshape global weather patterns over the coming months. According to the WMO, El Niño conditions have already formed and are expected to strengthen rapidly into a strong event between July and September 2026. Climate models indicate that sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are likely to exceed 2°C above average in key monitoring regions, significantly increasing the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, floods, marine heatwaves, and agricultural disruptions worldwide.

With forecasting models showing unusually high agreement, the WMO has launched an extensive global coordination effort to help governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors prepare for the months ahead.

El Niño Expected to Strengthen Rapidly

The latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update suggests the current El Niño will intensify throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer and continue strengthening into autumn.

Unlike short-term weather systems, El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These warmer waters release additional heat into the atmosphere, altering global wind circulation and rainfall patterns.

Forecasts from multiple international climate centers show strong agreement that this event will become one of the more significant El Niño episodes in recent years, increasing confidence in seasonal climate predictions.

Why El Niño Matters Globally

El Niño affects weather far beyond the Pacific Ocean.

• According to the WMO, a stronger El Niño raises the likelihood of prolonged drought across parts of Australia, Southeast Asia, southern Africa, and portions of South America, while increasing the chances of excessive rainfall and flooding in regions such as western South America and parts of North America.
• It also contributes to marine heatwaves, which place additional stress on coral reefs, fisheries, and marine biodiversity.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is already underway and is expected to intensify rapidly, increasing the probability of drought, heavy rainfall, land-based heatwaves, and unusually warm ocean conditions across many regions.

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Climate Change Could Amplify Impacts

Scientists emphasize that El Niño itself is a natural climate phenomenon occurring every two to seven years and typically lasting 9 to 12 months. However, rising global temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions can amplify their impacts.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global average temperatures have already increased by approximately 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, making heatwaves more frequent and intense. When El Niño develops during an already warming climate, it often pushes global temperatures even higher.

The previous strong El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year ever recorded globally, according to multiple international climate agencies.

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WMO Mobilizes Global Early Warning Systems

Recognizing the potential humanitarian and economic impacts, the WMO warns of intensified El Niño development while simultaneously expanding international coordination efforts.

• The organization is working closely with United Nations agencies, national meteorological services, disaster management authorities, and climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, water management, healthcare, and food security.
• Seasonal climate forecasts allow governments to prepare for potential crop failures, water shortages, wildfire risks, disease outbreaks, and flooding months before they occur.
• Early warning systems are particularly critical for vulnerable communities that face the greatest climate risks.

In addition to monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures, the WMO’s seasonal outlook also considers other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, providing a more comprehensive picture of expected global weather patterns.

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