The US industrial sector is set to drive record natural gas demand through 2027, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The forecast shows that industrial natural gas consumption is expected to keep rising gradually after already reaching a record high in 2025.
Industrial natural gas use averaged 23.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, surpassing the previous record of 23.4 Bcf/d set in 2023. EIA expects this demand to grow further in 2026 and 2027 as industrial activity improves, even though efficiency gains are limiting the pace of growth.
EIA Forecast Shows Gradual Growth in Gas Use
The EIA observed that industrial natural gas use has been largely stable since 2018, apart from the decline during the COVID-19 disruption in 2020 and the rebound that followed in 2021 and 2022. The EIA projects industrial natural gas consumption to increase by 1.2%, or 0.3 Bcf/d, in 2026. It expects another 1.7%, or 0.4 Bcf/d, increase in 2027.
Indicator |
Data |
|---|---|
2025 industrial gas use |
23.6 Bcf/d |
Previous record |
23.4 Bcf/d in 2023 |
2026 forecast growth |
1.2%, or 0.3 Bcf/d |
2027 forecast growth |
1.7%, or 0.4 Bcf/d |
January 2026 industrial use |
26.1 Bcf/d |
January 2027 forecast |
26.7 Bcf/d |
Summer low forecast |
Around 22.6 Bcf/d in June 2026 and 2027 |
Manufacturing index growth |
1.5% in 2026, 0.7% in 2027 |
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Why Industrial Demand Is Rising
Industrial natural gas demand is closely tied to manufacturing, chemicals, refining, and other energy-intensive industries. EIA expects the natural gas-weighted manufacturing index to rise by 1.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, supporting slightly higher fuel use.
Key drivers include:
- Higher industrial activity: Manufacturing growth is expected to increase natural gas consumption.
- Chemical sector demand: Chemicals remain a major consumer of natural gas for heat, power and feedstock.
- Winter heating needs: Industrial facilities usually consume more gas during colder months.
- Energy-intensive industries: Petrochemicals, ammonia production and refining continue to support demand.
- Efficiency gains: Better heaters and heat-recovery systems are reducing gas use per unit of output, slowing overall demand growth.
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Seasonal Pattern and Broader Energy Impact
Industrial gas use usually peaks in winter because factories and industrial sites require more heating. EIA reported 26.1 Bcf/d of industrial consumption in January 2026 and expects 26.7 Bcf/d in January 2027. By contrast, consumption is expected to fall to around 22.6 Bcf/d during June in both 2026 and 2027.
The trend also shows how natural gas remains central to the U.S. industrial economy. While efficiency improvements are helping reduce fuel intensity, rising industrial output is expected to more than offset those gains.
Overall, the EIA forecast suggests that the US industrial sector is set to drive record natural gas demand. The growth may be gradual, but record consumption levels show that natural gas continues to play a major role in manufacturing, chemicals, and heavy industry.
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