The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami has reported that Tropical Storm Rafael, which formed Monday in the Caribbean, is currently bringing heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and may strengthen into a hurricane before likely hitting Cuba. Florida and portions of the U.S. Southeast are forecasted to receive substantial rainfall later in the week as a result of Tropical Storm Rafael’s expected progression.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Jamaica, while a hurricane watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands and areas of Cuba, including the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. Additionally, a tropical storm watch is in place for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas in Cuba, as well as for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to the west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.

Path and Strength Predictions

According to the latest data, Tropical Storm Rafael was situated around 245 kilometers south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph, moving north-northwest at 15 kph. Forecasts suggest that the storm will reach the Cayman Islands as a hurricane by Tuesday and move towards Cuba by Wednesday.

While the storm is currently expected to peak as a Category 1 hurricane, weather conditions in the coming days could allow it to strengthen further. Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, stated that the current situation encourages quick organization and that a stronger hurricane cannot be ruled out, which makes vigilance even more important.

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Preparations and Impact

In response to Tropical Storm Rafael, the Cayman Islands government announced school closures for Tuesday and distributed sandbags to residents. In Jamaica, schools are also set to close on Tuesday, with government offices closed by Monday afternoon. The Jamaica Observer reported that a large landslide occurred north of Kingston on Sunday due to persistent rain in anticipation of the storm. No injuries were reported, though a few communities were isolated.

Rainfall from Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to bring totals between 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 cm), with certain areas in Jamaica and parts of Cuba potentially receiving up to 9 inches (23 cm), which could lead to flooding and mudslides. Following the recent dissipation of Tropical Storm Patty in the Atlantic, Rafael has now become the 17th named storm of the season, marking a notable activity spike in this year’s storm season.

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