India has recorded hottest October in 124 years breaking the previous record of 1951 according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) report. As per the weather agency, several factors kept the nighttime temperatures above average.

For Delhi in particular, where no rainfall was recorded throughout the month, October has been the hottest since 1951, according to the IMD. The record-breaking nighttime temperatures in October followed those in July, August, and September, making it the fourth consecutive month since records began in 1901.

India has Recorded the Hottest October, with Historic Temperatures

The IMD tweeted on X, “Monthly mean Temperature (average of daily minimum and maximum temperature) for the month of October over the entire country is the highest during the year 2024 in the last 124 years (1901-2024). It is also the highest over Central India.”

According to 1901 IMD records, the highest average October day temperature ever was 36.2 degrees Celsius in 1951. In 1915 and 1951, the highest recorded average nighttime temperature was 22.3 degrees Celsius. The average temperature in October 2024 was 26.92 degrees Celsius, which was higher than the typical of 25.69 degrees. In addition, the minimum temperature was 21.85 degrees Celsius, which is lower than the national average of 20.01 degrees Celsius.

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IMD Director General’s Take

M. Mohapatra, director general of IMD, ascribed the unusual warmth to two main causes: “No active western disturbance impacted the region.”

He added, “The second reason is that five low-pressure areas formed during October with three depressions and one cyclone, leading to more easterly winds.” He went on to say, “North-westerly winds are necessary for lower temperatures in north-western India. The monsoonal flow was also there that does not allow fall in temperature.”

India experienced normal rainfall in October 2024. Due primarily to the active northeast monsoon, it was above normal in the southern states (11.8%) and the east and northeast regions (14.3%).

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Forecasts for Continued Warmth and Climate Impacts

According to the IMD, over the coming weeks, temperatures are predicted to stay above average in a number of areas in central and eastern India as well as northwest India.

This trend is expected to continue, which is significant because the IMD predicts above-normal temperatures for a large portion of November. It is anticipated that a more drier than usual monsoon season will result in greater than average minimum temperatures, especially in Northwest and Central India. There may be more rainfall in South Peninsular India this month as well.

The persistence of neutral El Nino circumstances in the equatorial Pacific Ocean may also be the reason for the postponement of the beginning of cold weather conditions. The probability forecast, according to the IMD, suggests a greater likelihood of La Nina conditions gradually forming in November and December.

Mohapatra acknowledged that weather forecasting organizations around the world have made inaccurate El Nino predictions this year, saying, “ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions are slowly evolving towards the negative side, and La Nina can set in by December.”

India is not the only nation experiencing extreme temperatures. Japan has also reported its warmest October since 1898, based on data from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

According to climatologist and weather historian M Herrera on X, record-breaking heat spanning from West Asia to Japan, including India and Pakistan, is expected to persist into November.

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