The strongest El Niño in living memory could develop over the Pacific later this year, according to Britain’s Met Office, with forecasts showing equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures potentially rising by more than 3°C. A typical El Niño produces a warming of around 1°C to 2°C, with 2°C generally considered a major event. The Met Office says the developing pattern could push global temperatures higher and make 2027 very likely to become the warmest year on record, surpassing 2024.

What Is Driving the El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It develops when the normal trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to shift eastward.

The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and can last for several months. Its influence extends well beyond the Pacific because changes in ocean temperatures affect atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across large parts of the world.

The Met Office says the current event is expected to become the strongest El Niño in living memory and could continue into at least early 2027.

Why 2027 Could Become the Hottest Year

El Niño transfers substantial heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. This can temporarily raise the global average temperature, with the strongest effect often appearing in the calendar year following the winter peak of the event.

Met Office climate scientist Dr Nick Dunstone said this warming effect means 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.

The natural boost from El Niño would occur on top of long-term human-induced warming. The Met Office stresses that El Niño does not explain the continuing long-term rise in global temperatures. Instead, it adds a temporary increase to an already warming climate.

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Weather Effects Are Already Emerging

El Niño does not produce identical weather conditions everywhere, and the strength of its effects varies by region. However, researchers are already watching several changes that are consistent with its influence.

• In South Asia, the southwest monsoon has been running below normal in 2026, while changes in atmospheric circulation associated with El Niño can suppress tropical storm activity in the Atlantic.

Closer to the Pacific, the effects can be more pronounced.

• El Niño is associated with increased risks of drought and bushfires in Australia, while parts of Peru, Ecuador and the southern United States can face greater flooding risks.

The Met Office also says El Niño can influence UK weather patterns.

• Historical patterns suggest a greater chance of westerly winds and wetter conditions, although the relationship is not strong enough to predict individual UK weather events.

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A Global Climate Warning

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the forecast signal as unusually intense, saying he had not previously seen an El Niño signal of this strength in the forecasts.

The Food and Agriculture Organization has also warned that El Niño could threaten tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries with crisis-level acute food insecurity, highlighting the potential consequences for agriculture and food supplies.

While forecasts can change as the event develops, the current projections indicate that the Pacific is entering an unusually significant phase of the climate cycle. If the strongest projections materialise, the effects could be felt through global temperatures, rainfall, storms, agriculture and water availability well beyond the Pacific region.

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