Countries lag on climate and food security targets for 2030 as governments struggle to transform food systems quickly enough to meet international benchmarks, according to a major assessment published in Nature Food. The study examined 197 countries across 44 indicators, finding that food-system greenhouse gas emissions, food insecurity and governance are among the areas furthest from their 2030 goals. At the current rate of change, the global average for food-system emissions remains 75% away from its target, and no country is projected to meet the 2030 emissions goal.

The assessment was carried out by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative and is one of the broadest evaluations yet of how national food systems are performing.

A Wider Look at Food Systems

Rather than simply asking whether conditions are improving or worsening, researchers compared countries’ performance with specific targets for 2030 and 2050. The analysis covered five areas: diets, nutrition and health; environment and natural resources; livelihoods, poverty and equity; governance; and resilience.

The results show that improvement is uneven. Five indicators, including cropland change, rural unemployment and underemployment, food supply variability and mobile phone subscriptions, showed comparatively stronger progress towards 2030 objectives.

Europe and Asia were generally closer to desired benchmarks, while Africa and the Americas had fewer indicators near target levels.

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Food Security Remains a Major Gap

Food insecurity is one of the areas requiring the fastest improvement.

• The researchers found that many regions would need changes on a scale that is difficult to achieve under current policies.
• Africa would need annual improvements of around 15-20% across 23 indicators to reach its 2030 targets.
• In Asia, food insecurity would have to decline by more than 63% every year to reach the corresponding target.

The numbers highlight the distance between current conditions and the pace of change required within just a few years.

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Some Trends Are Moving Backwards

The study also identified indicators where global conditions are deteriorating rather than improving. These include civil society participation, government accountability, ultra-processed food sales, agricultural water withdrawals, pesticide use and food-system emissions.

That creates a more complicated picture than simply measuring whether food systems are improving overall. Some countries are making progress in individual areas while simultaneously moving away from other targets.

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Regional Benchmarks Could Make Targets More Practical

The researchers argue that comparing every country against a single global benchmark can sometimes hide achievable progress. Regional and income-based comparisons could offer more realistic pathways.

• For example, African countries are on average 58.7% away from the global benchmark for healthy-diet affordability.
• When compared with the average performance of the top 20% of African countries instead, the gap falls to 32.2%.
• Tunisia currently stands out in Africa, ranking closest to or meeting global targets and benchmarks for 16 indicators.

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A Narrowing Window to 2030

The study does identify encouraging signs: at least one-third of countries are already on track to meet the 2030 target for seven of the 33 indicators assessed for progress, while half of all indicators are moving globally in a desirable direction.

But the overall pace remains insufficient. Extending some targets to 2050 could make them more achievable, although the researchers warn that food insecurity and food-system emissions would still require exceptionally rapid and sustained action.

For countries that lag on climate and food security targets for 2030, the challenge is therefore not simply setting more ambitious goals. Governments will need stronger policies, investment, technological innovation and accountability to close the gap between today’s food systems and the systems required to protect health, livelihoods and the environment.

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