India’s monsoon starts almost 40% short this year, raising concerns for farmers, businesses, and policymakers as the El Niño climate phenomenon begins to influence weather patterns across South Asia. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), nationwide monsoon rainfall was nearly 40% below normal as of mid-June. The southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September, contributes about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and supports nearly half of the country’s agricultural land.

Weather experts now warn that the rainfall deficit could persist through July and August, potentially affecting crop production, water availability, and economic activity in one of the world’s largest agricultural economies.

Weak Monsoon Raises Alarm for Agriculture

The delayed and below-average rainfall is already affecting India’s critical planting season. Farmers across several states are currently sowing key crops such as:

• Rice: India’s most important food grain and a major export commodity.
• Soybeans: Widely cultivated in central India and highly dependent on timely monsoon rains.
• Groundnuts: Vulnerable to prolonged dry spells during the early growth stage.
• Cotton: Another major crop that relies heavily on seasonal rainfall.

Weather analysts note that insufficient rainfall during June can delay sowing operations and shorten crop growing periods, ultimately impacting yields.

Current Monsoon Snapshot

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El Niño Emerging as a Major Factor

El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation worldwide.

Historically, El Niño is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India, which can put pressure on agriculture and water supplies. The resulting dry conditions can also contribute to more frequent and intense heatwaves, while increasing the risk of drought in vulnerable regions. Beyond India, El Niño can disrupt weather patterns worldwide, bringing floods to some areas and prolonged dry spells to others.

Meteorologists say current climate models indicate that abnormal dryness may continue through much of July and August, particularly across northwestern and central India.

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Water Supplies Already Under Pressure

The effects of the weak monsoon are not limited to agriculture.

Mumbai’s BMC recently suspended water supplies to construction sites for the first time in 12 years, citing concerns over reservoir levels. Water allocations have also been reduced for businesses, factories, and recreational facilities, while swimming pools have seen restrictions in some areas.

These measures highlight how quickly rainfall shortages can begin affecting urban infrastructure and economic activity.

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Crop Markets Could Feel the Impact

Agricultural experts are closely monitoring the situation because India plays a major role in global food markets.

Potential consequences include:

• Delayed soybean planting: Dry conditions are already triggering severe crop-weather alerts in major growing regions.
• Lower agricultural productivity: Extended rainfall deficits could affect harvest volumes.
• Rising food prices: Reduced production often leads to higher domestic and global commodity prices.
• Possible export restrictions: Poor harvests could prompt authorities to limit exports of key crops to protect domestic supplies.

India is among the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar, cotton, and pulses, making monsoon performance critical not only for the domestic economy but also for international agricultural markets.

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Can the Monsoon Recover?

Forecasters expect some improvement in rainfall over the coming weeks as moist southwesterly winds help the monsoon advance further north. However, experts caution that temporary rainfall increases may not be enough to eliminate the current deficit.

The fact that India’s monsoon starts almost 40% short is one of the earliest signs of how a strengthening El Niño may reshape weather patterns this year. While there is still time for rainfall to recover before the season ends, climate models currently suggest that the monsoon could remain weaker and more uneven than normal.

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