El Niño has officially begun, and climate scientists warn it could become one of the strongest events recorded in modern history. According to the latest report from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% probability that the current El Niño will become a “very strong” event, often referred to as a Super El Niño. NOAA is also assigning a 100% chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with extremely high odds of continuing into winter.

If forecasts hold true, this climate phenomenon could significantly alter global weather patterns, intensify extreme weather events, and contribute to record-breaking global temperatures in the coming years.

What Is Driving This El Niño?

The development of El Niño is being fueled by unusually warm ocean waters moving across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Over recent months, vast volumes of warm water located 600 to 1,000 feet below the ocean surface have shifted from the western Pacific toward the eastern Pacific near South America.

Scientists say these underwater heat reservoirs are now rising to the surface, a process commonly associated with major El Niño events. Similar oceanic conditions were observed during the powerful El Niño episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

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NOAA’s Latest Forecast

The agency expects the event to strengthen significantly in the coming months.

Several climate models suggest sea surface temperatures could rise well beyond the threshold required for a very strong event.

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Global Weather Impacts Expected

A stronger El Niño often leads to major weather disruptions worldwide. Experts warn that the current event could increase the likelihood of:

• Severe heatwaves
• Prolonged droughts in some regions
• Heavy rainfall and flooding in others
• Marine heatwaves
• Agricultural disruptions

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that governments and communities should prepare for intensified weather extremes as the event develops.

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Could This Lead to Record Global Heat?

One of the most significant concerns is the impact on global temperatures. El Niño transfers large amounts of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily boosting global temperatures on top of the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

Scientists suggest that the additional warming from El Niño could make 2027 a strong candidate to surpass previous global temperature records, potentially becoming the warmest year ever observed.

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New Ways of Measuring El Niño

As global oceans continue to warm due to climate change, scientists are finding it increasingly difficult to measure El Niño using traditional methods.

To improve accuracy, NOAA has introduced a new monitoring system called the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Instead of comparing Pacific Ocean temperatures solely to historical averages, the index compares them against broader tropical ocean conditions, helping remove the influence of long-term ocean warming.

Importantly, climate scientists emphasize that while El Niño has officially begun, there is currently no evidence that human-caused climate change directly increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. However, the warming background climate can amplify the impacts when strong El Niño conditions occur.

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