IEA forecasts 3.6% growth in global power demand in 2026 as renewable energy continues its rapid expansion and prepares to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation for the first time. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest Electricity Mid-Year Update, global electricity demand is expected to rise from 3% growth in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, with worldwide electricity consumption reaching 30,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2027, up from 28,600 TWh in 2025.

The report also highlights India’s growing contribution to the clean energy transition, with solar and wind generation increasing by more than 25% during the first half of 2026.

Renewables Set to Overtake Coal in 2026

The IEA expects renewable energy to become the world’s largest source of electricity generation in 2026 after reaching near parity with coal in 2025.

• Renewable electricity generation is projected to increase by more than 8% in 2026, raising its share of global electricity production from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.
• Continued investments in solar, wind, and nuclear energy are expected to reshape the global power mix while slowing the growth of fossil fuel-based electricity.

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India Emerges as a Clean Energy Leader

India remains one of the fastest-growing renewable energy markets globally.

• During the first half of 2026, combined solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation expanded by over 25%, increasing their contribution to the country’s electricity supply mix from 14% in H1 2025 to 16.5% in H1 2026.
• Meanwhile, gas-fired electricity generation declined by approximately 15% compared with the same period last year and stood more than 40% below H1 2024 levels, reflecting the growing competitiveness of renewable energy sources.

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Weather and Energy Prices Could Influence Demand

While IEA forecasts 3.6% growth in global power demand in 2026, the agency cautions that weather patterns could significantly influence electricity consumption.

A stronger-than-expected El Niño event in 2026 could increase cooling demand worldwide while simultaneously reducing hydropower and wind generation in several regions. Such conditions may temporarily increase dependence on other electricity sources to maintain grid reliability.

Global energy markets also continue to face price pressures. Disruptions affecting LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to higher natural gas prices, pushing wholesale electricity prices in the European Union and Japan up by more than 30% year-on-year during the second quarter of 2026. In comparison, wholesale electricity prices remained broadly stable in the United States, while India’s prices increased by less than 10%.

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Carbon Emissions Expected to Stabilize

The IEA projects that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from global electricity generation will rise by around 1% in 2026 before leveling off in 2027.

Although higher natural gas prices have temporarily supported greater coal-fired generation, the continued expansion of renewable energy and a strong increase in nuclear power are expected to prevent further emissions growth beyond 2026.

Key Highlights from the IEA Outlook

As renewable energy deployment accelerates across major economies, the global electricity sector is entering a transformative phase. With countries like India leading renewable capacity growth and clean energy set to surpass coal, the IEA expects the coming years to mark a significant shift toward a more sustainable and resilient global power system.