Asian hydropower output decline in June 2026, forced several countries to rely more heavily on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to keep electricity grids running, raising fresh concerns about energy security and climate goals. According to market analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights, widespread drought conditions linked to a strengthening El Niño sharply reduced hydropower generation across key Asian economies during June. The region lost the equivalent of 13 average gigawatts (GW) of flexible electricity in just one month, making it increasingly difficult for utilities to balance power demand.

As reservoirs shrank and river flows weakened, countries including India and Vietnam turned to coal-fired power plants and LNG to fill the gap, highlighting how climate-driven weather extremes are reshaping Asia’s energy mix.

El Niño Is Reducing Hydropower Across Asia

El Niño is a natural climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it occurs periodically, a stronger El Niño events often disrupt rainfall patterns across Asia, bringing below-normal monsoon rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and drought.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is strengthening rapidly between July and September 2026 and is likely to continue through the end of the year. The phenomenon is expected to increase the risk of heatwaves, reduce reservoir inflows, suppress hydropower generation, and place additional pressure on agriculture, water supplies, and electricity systems throughout the region.

Also Read: Thousands Without Power In US Pacific Islands After Super Typhoon Bavi

Coal and LNG Step In as Hydropower Falls

• Hydropower plays a unique role in electricity systems because it can quickly increase or decrease power generation whenever demand changes.
• When water levels fall, however, utilities have few immediate alternatives other than thermal power stations.
• According to S&P Global, the Asian hydropower output decline in June 2026 has already pushed several countries to generate more electricity from coal and natural gas. Andre Lambine, Lead Asia Pacific Short-Term Power and Renewables Research at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), noted that losing 13 GW of flexible hydropower within a single month presents a major challenge.

He also pointed out that, unlike solar and wind energy, hydropower cannot simply be expanded during drought conditions because it depends entirely on available water resources.

India and Vietnam Saw Sharp Changes

India experienced one of the biggest shifts in electricity generation during June.

• Power demand increased by 24.3 average GW compared with the previous year, while hydropower output declined by 6.3 average GW.
• At the same time, gas-fired generation fell slightly by 0.8 average GW, leaving coal to absorb most of the additional demand.
• Coal-fired generation increased by 20.7 average GW, while renewable sources also contributed.
• Solar and wind power together supplied an additional 9.4 average GW, helping reduce pressure on the electricity grid but not fully replacing the lost hydropower.

Vietnam experienced a similar trend.

• Electricity demand rose by 6.1 average GW, while hydropower generation dropped by 4.6 average GW.
• To maintain reliable electricity supplies, coal generation increased by 7.1 average GW, supported by additional gas, solar, and wind generation.

Also Read: US Tidal Wetland Productivity Rose 6% Over 20 Years, Satellite Study Finds

More Pressure Could Build in the Months Ahead

Energy analysts believe the current situation may continue throughout the third quarter of 2026.

El Niño-adjusted forecasts indicate that hydropower utilization is likely to remain below normal across several Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the Philippines. If rainfall remains below average, electricity producers may need to depend even more on coal and LNG to meet rising demand during the summer.

The report also notes that weather is expected to become the dominant factor influencing Asian electricity markets after geopolitical disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz ease. While many utilities have already secured fuel supplies for the coming months, stronger impacts on fuel markets may emerge later in the year if dry conditions persist.

Also Read: Tesla Launches Its First Destination Charging Station In Delhi