Climate negotiators and diplomats around the world are preparing for a possible return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the international stage, a development that could significantly impact global efforts to combat climate change. During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, weakening global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the next U.S. election approaches, many nations are considering strategies to continue the fight against climate change, with or without U.S. leadership.

Concerns Over U.S. Commitment: A Troubling Déjà Vu

In 2016, Trump’s unexpected victory caught many climate negotiators off guard. His administration’s decision to exit the Paris Agreement and roll back environmental regulations set back international climate efforts. With the next United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) scheduled to begin shortly after the U.S. election, there is a sense of urgency among diplomats to prepare for any outcome.

Laurence Tubiana, France’s climate ambassador during the creation of the Paris Agreement, expressed concern but also a resolve to continue forward. “I think there will be a sentiment that we have to double down on the Paris Agreement framework,” she said. “I think everybody’s preparing for that.”

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The Global Response

Should the U.S. once again withdraw from international climate commitments, other nations are poised to reaffirm their dedication to reducing emissions. Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, emphasized that the global transition toward renewable energy is already underway. “What we have now is actually unstoppable,” she stated. “What we’re all focused on is scale and speed, but not direction.”

Countries in Europe, Latin America, and vulnerable island nations are particularly invested in maintaining momentum. Sandra Guzmán Luna, a negotiator focusing on climate finance for Latin American and Caribbean nations, cautioned against overestimating American influence. “Most governments are trying to speed that work,” she noted, emphasizing that efforts to meet emissions goals and finance clean energy projects are progressing worldwide.

The Role of Subnational Actors

In the United States, states and cities have shown that they can influence climate action independently of federal policy. During Trump’s previous term, a coalition of governors, mayors, and businesses formed the “We Are Still In” movement, committing to uphold the goals of the Paris Agreement despite federal withdrawal.

Governor Jay Inslee of Washington highlighted the importance of state-level initiatives. “If Trump is elected, he will find some way to throw sand in the gears of progress; there’s no question about that,” he said. “But progress will continue in states. He won’t be able to totally eliminate everything that we’ve done.”

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Looking Ahead

The potential policy shift in the United States comes at a critical time. Scientists warn that global efforts to reduce emissions must accelerate to prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change. President Joe Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement on his first day in office and has pledged to cut U.S. emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. A reversal of these commitments could hinder global progress.

However, many leaders remain optimistic. They believe that the economic and technological advancements in renewable energy make the transition away from fossil fuels inevitable. International cooperation, market forces, and public demand for climate action are driving change at unprecedented levels.

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Conclusion

While the prospect of the U.S. altering its climate policies again introduces uncertainty, the global community appears more prepared than ever to address the challenges ahead. Nations are signalling their intent to press forward, reinforcing the idea that combating climate change is a collective effort that transcends individual administrations.

As Christiana Figueres aptly put it, the world is focused on the “scale and speed” of climate action, not the direction. Regardless of political shifts, the commitment to a sustainable future remains strong among countries, organizations, and individuals worldwide.

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