For decades, the U.S. and China have been at the centre of global climate conversations, not just because they are the world’s largest economies but because they are also the top two greenhouse gas emitters. The history between these nations on climate issues has been fraught with tension, collaboration, and, more recently, an emerging understanding that neither can combat climate change alone. In the past week, the stage has been set for another critical moment in this ongoing dialogue as John Podesta, the U.S. climate envoy, meets with his Chinese counterpart, Liu Zhenmin, in Beijing. A pivotal question is at the heart of these talks: Is China finally nearing its emissions peak?

A History of Uneven Progress

To understand where the U.S. and China stand today on climate action, we must look back at the long history that has shaped their environmental policies.

• The United States: Historically, the U.S. has led various global environmental movements. It played a critical role in the Kyoto Protocol (1997), an international agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, it later withdrew under the Bush administration, citing economic concerns. The Paris Agreement (2015) marked a renewed commitment under President Obama, where the U.S. pledged to reduce emissions significantly. Under the Trump administration, this progress was again derailed, but the U.S. returned to the Paris Agreement under President Biden, eager to push for even stronger climate action.
• China: Meanwhile, China, though often criticized for its emissions, was for many years seen as a developing nation with limited responsibility for the global climate crisis. That changed after it became the world’s largest emitter in 2007. China’s rapid industrialization, heavily reliant on coal, earned it a reputation as the global climate bad guy. Yet, the country has increasingly recognized that it, too, faces dire consequences from climate change—floods, rising sea levels, and air pollution being just a few of the threats. As a result, China has slowly shifted gears, investing heavily in renewable energy and pledging to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.

The 2024 Talks: A Glimmer of Hope

Now, the latest talks between Podesta and Zhenmin signal that the winds of change may finally be blowing. China has long set 2030 as the year to peak its emissions, but there are indications that this peak could come sooner. Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), recently observed that China is installing renewable energy—specifically wind and solar capacity—at an unprecedented pace. So fast, in fact, that China reached its wind and solar energy goals six years ahead of schedule.

The surge in renewable capacity, coupled with a construction slowdown affecting emissions-heavy industries like steel production, has led experts to speculate that China could peak emissions earlier than expected. This is no small feat, given that China’s economy is still largely dependent on coal.

“China is adding so much clean electricity… that they could peak emissions right now if they can moderate their energy demand growth,” Myllyvirta said. The question now becomes whether China’s energy demand will continue to grow or if their new investments in clean energy will keep emissions in check.

The Role of Coal: Still a King but Losing Ground

One of the biggest obstacles to global climate goals is China’s continued reliance on coal. China remains the world’s top consumer of coal, and coal-fired power still dominates its energy grid. While coal power permits have dropped by 83% in the first half of 2024, construction of coal plants is still taking place at a significant scale. For instance, 41 gigawatts of coal projects began construction in the first half of 2024 alone, nearly matching the numbers seen in 2022.

China’s approach to energy, however, remains cautious and deliberate. Rather than hastily dismantling its coal infrastructure, China is committed to a strategy described as “establishing before breaking.” This means building a robust, clean electricity system before gradually phasing out coal, a process that China is implementing through its substantial investment in solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower.

And this strategy seems to be working. Despite these challenges, China’s demand for coal is projected to rise at its lowest rate in almost a decade.

The Nuclear and Hydropower Push

China’s clean energy expansion isn’t limited to solar and wind power. Nuclear power is also a critical piece of the puzzle. China is now the fastest-growing nuclear power producer, with plans for 11 new nuclear reactors approved just last month. Additionally, China’s existing hydroelectric power capabilities are significant, but recent droughts have impacted production. Experts suggest this is likely to become more frequent as climate change intensifies.

This cautious balancing act, where China builds out clean energy infrastructure while keeping coal as a safety net, has led to complex outcomes. On one hand, China is leading the world in renewable energy capacity. On the other hand, its coal use remains substantial, and it’s unclear whether the country can wean itself off fossil fuels fast enough to meet its targets.

What’s at Stake?

At this week’s meeting, John Podesta will be pushing for more than just assurances that China is nearing its emissions peak. The U.S. is also expected to press China on its methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas that has a much stronger impact on global warming than CO₂. Despite its progress in renewable energy, China has yet to sign the Global Methane Pledge, an initiative to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030.

Additionally, the two countries will likely discuss China’s dominance in the green manufacturing sector, particularly in producing solar panels and batteries. While the world depends heavily on China for these green technologies, this reliance has sparked trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese imports to protect its domestic industries.

A Long Road Ahead

Even as China is Finally nearing its Emissions Peak and making impressive strides in renewable energy, there is still a long road ahead. The question remains whether China’s emissions will peak and then steadily decline or if they will plateau and maintain high levels. While China’s leadership has signalled its commitment to climate goals, the challenges of grid reforms, vested interests, and the sheer size of its economy pose significant hurdles.

In Conclusion, the world is watching closely because, as Lauri Myllyvirta of CREA notes, “Whether China’s emissions growth continues or declines is absolutely decisive for our ability to peak global emissions and reduce them to net zero.” The U.S. and China—two giants of global emissions—are crucial to the future of our planet. These ongoing talks are not just about policy; they are about the very survival of ecosystems, economies, and communities around the world.

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