As the world prepares for the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024, the spotlight turns to the South Caucasus region. The challenges posed by climate change are intensifying in this historically diverse and geopolitically sensitive area, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. These countries, characterized by their mountainous terrain and proximity to the Caspian Sea, are already witnessing the devastating impacts of climate change—from rising temperatures to water shortages and extreme weather events.

With COP29 approaching, it’s a pivotal moment for the region to take centre stage in the global climate dialogue. The summit presents an opportunity for the South Caucasus nations to highlight their unique vulnerabilities while also showcasing the urgent need for enhanced climate action, transboundary cooperation, and international support.

Rising Temperatures and Extreme Weather: A Growing Threat

The South Caucasus is warming at a faster rate than the global average, and this rising temperature is at the root of the region’s climate crisis. According to a report by the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC), all three countries in the region—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—are facing increasingly severe environmental changes. These changes are not only impacting ecosystems but also threatening livelihoods and human health.

Image Source: COP29 Official Website

Armenia, for example, is expected to experience significant warming. A joint report by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank projects that the country could see temperature increases of up to 4.7°C by the 2090s under a high-emissions scenario. Azerbaijan, the host nation for COP29, is also seeing temperatures rise at an alarming rate, with a 1.3°C increase recorded by 2010. Projections suggest that by the end of the century, Azerbaijan could also experience a 4.7°C rise under similar conditions.

Georgia has not seen as dramatic a temperature rise yet, but experts warn that the country could soon follow its neighbours in experiencing more extreme conditions. This increase in temperature has resulted in more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as mudslides, droughts, floods, and wildfires. These events not only pose immediate threats to infrastructure and human life but also contribute to long-term ecological damage, economic losses, and social displacement.

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Glacial Melting and Water Shortages

One of the most alarming consequences of climate change in the South Caucasus is the rapid melting of glaciers in the Caucasus Mountains. The glaciers act as crucial water reservoirs, feeding into the rivers and streams that supply water to millions of people in the region. As temperatures rise, glaciers are retreating, causing significant reductions in water availability.

Azerbaijan, with its downstream location in the Kura River Basin, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of glacial melt. More than 70 per cent of the country’s water resources are formed in neighbouring countries, including Armenia and Georgia. This makes Azerbaijan highly dependent on transboundary water flows, which are increasingly unpredictable due to climate change. Projections suggest that Azerbaijan could experience a 5-10 per cent decrease in water resources by 2040, with further declines expected by 2070.

The water crisis is compounded by the region’s agricultural needs. In Armenia, for example, water shortages threaten the Ararat Valley, which is the country’s breadbasket. Similarly, Georgia’s fertile Kakheti region, known for wine production, faces growing challenges due to water scarcity. As water resources dwindle, competition for access may intensify, exacerbating political tensions in an already volatile region.

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Climate Change and Security in the South Caucasus

Climate change is not just an environmental issue in the South Caucasus—it’s a security threat. The ENVSEC report highlights how the region’s geopolitical tensions could be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. Areas with existing vulnerabilities, such as Northern Armenia and Southern Georgia, the Kura-Ara(k)s lowlands in Azerbaijan, and the Black Sea coast in Georgia, are particularly at risk.

The report identifies specific transboundary areas where climate change could undermine socioeconomic systems, threaten infrastructure, or exacerbate political and social tensions. For example, Baku and the Absheron Peninsula in Azerbaijan, Yerevan and the Ararat Valley in Armenia, and Tbilisi in Georgia are all areas where the impacts of climate change could lead to instability if not properly managed.

The South Caucasus is already a region marked by complex political dynamics, including unresolved conflicts and competition over natural resources. Adding climate-related stressors to the mix could heighten the risk of conflict, making regional cooperation on climate action more critical than ever.

COP29: A Platform for Climate Action in the South Caucasus

COP29 in Baku provides a unique platform for the South Caucasus to bring its climate challenges to the forefront of international discussions. As the world gathers to negotiate pathways to limit global warming and enhance climate resilience, the South Caucasus can play a vital role in shaping the conversation on how regions with complex geopolitical landscapes can adapt to and mitigate climate change.

One of the key messages that the region can send at COP29 is the need for enhanced transboundary cooperation. Given the interconnected nature of water resources, ecosystems, and economies in the South Caucasus, climate solutions must be approached collaboratively. This includes sharing data on water flows, jointly managing shared water basins, and developing cross-border strategies for climate adaptation.

Additionally, the region could use COP29 to advocate for greater international support in addressing its climate challenges. The financial and technical resources needed to implement effective climate adaptation measures are often beyond the reach of small and developing nations. By working together, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia can leverage COP29 to secure the investments needed to strengthen infrastructure, protect vulnerable communities, and build climate-resilient economies.

A Call for Regional and Global Action

The South Caucasus faces a daunting climate future, but the solutions are within reach. The region’s governments, with support from the international community, can take meaningful action to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. This requires an urgent focus on climate adaptation—from safeguarding water resources to building resilient infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather events.

In the run-up to COP29, it’s clear that the South Caucasus must also prioritize nature-based solutions. Restoring forests, wetlands, and other natural ecosystems can provide a buffer against the impacts of climate change while also sequestering carbon and supporting biodiversity. Likewise, investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, helping the region to contribute to global climate goals.

Also Read: Community-Based Approaches To Climate Adaptation

The Urgency of COP29 for the South Caucasus

As the world looks to Baku for COP29, the South Caucasus stands at a crossroads. The region faces a unique combination of environmental, political, and social challenges—many of which are being amplified by climate change. However, COP29 also presents an opportunity for the region to lead by example. By showcasing the urgent need for climate action in vulnerable regions and advocating for stronger international support, the South Caucasus can emerge as a key player in the global fight against climate change.

For Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, the time to act is now. The future of their economies, ecosystems, and people depends on it. COP29 can serve as a turning point—not just for the region but for the world.

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