El Niño could reduce oil sardine production in 2027, according to scientists at the ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI), raising concerns over India’s marine fisheries and the livelihoods of thousands of coastal fishing communities. Although oil sardine stocks have shown strong recovery in 2026 after nearly a decade of decline, researchers warn that the strengthening El Niño could reverse these gains. The climate phenomenon is expected to raise sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean during April and May 2027, increasing the likelihood of marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and changes in ocean salinity.

Since oil sardines are among the most climate-sensitive marine fish species, prolonged warming could reduce recruitment, lower fish catches, and ultimately affect India’s overall marine fish production.

Why El Niño Poses a Threat

Scientists say El Niño could reduce oil sardine production because the climate pattern causes unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean, which later influence the Indian Ocean through changes in atmospheric circulation, ocean currents, and the Walker Circulation.

According to CMFRI Director Dr. Grinson George, there is typically a four-to-six-month lag before warming reaches Indian waters. With El Niño forecast to strengthen during November and December 2026, its effects are expected to become visible across India’s marine ecosystems by April and May 2027.

Oil sardines, which belong to the small pelagic fish group, are particularly vulnerable to warming oceans and marine heatwaves.

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Recovery Could Be Short-Lived

Kerala’s oil sardine fishery has only recently begun recovering after experiencing a significant decline over the past decade.

• While current stock levels remain healthy, scientists caution that prolonged warming could weaken spawning success and reduce the number of young fish entering the population, a process known as recruitment.
• A decline in recruitment would eventually translate into lower catches for fishermen and reduced fish availability in the market.

Researchers also warn that reduced oil sardine populations could impact India’s overall marine fish production because the species contributes significantly to the country’s annual marine landings.

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Wider Impact on Marine Ecosystems

The warming associated with El Niño is expected to affect more than just oil sardines.

• CMFRI projects an increased risk of marine heatwaves, higher sea surface temperatures, and rising salinity during 2027.
• These conditions can trigger coral bleaching, weakening reef ecosystems that support commercially important fish species such as red snapper.

Scientists also warned that if heavy rainfall follows extended periods of hot, saline conditions, sudden changes in coastal salinity could disrupt aquaculture operations and affect fish farming across coastal regions.

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CMFRI Plans Early Advisories for Fishermen

To help reduce the impact of changing ocean conditions, CMFRI announced that it will begin issuing El Niño advisories for fishermen and fish farmers. The institute emphasized the importance of continuous ocean monitoring, early warning systems, and adaptive fisheries management to help coastal communities prepare for climate-related risks.

Experts say climate-driven marine changes are becoming more frequent as global ocean temperatures continue to rise. While India’s oil sardine stocks remain abundant today, the warning from CMFRI highlights the growing influence of climate variability on fisheries. Strengthening monitoring systems, supporting climate-resilient fishing practices, and improving early forecasting will be essential to protecting both marine biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions who depend on India’s coastal fisheries.