Drought covers 41% of India’s kharif sowing area, raising fresh concerns over food security, farm incomes, and agricultural output as the southwest monsoon continues to underperform across large parts of the country. According to the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, kharif sowing stood at 18.272 million hectares (mha) as of June 25, down by 5.374 mha (nearly 23%) from 23.646 mha during the same period last year. At the same time, the National Drought Monitor developed by IIT Gandhinagar reported that 41.2% of India’s total land area was under drought or near-drought conditions by July 1, up sharply from 19.6% just a month earlier.

Scientists attribute the worsening conditions to a 40% rainfall deficit in June and the rapid strengthening of El Niño, which is expected to weaken monsoon rainfall during the critical sowing season.

Kharif Sowing Sees Sharp Decline Across Major Crops

The delayed arrival and uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall have slowed planting activity across nearly every major kharif crop.

• Rice cultivation has declined significantly, with the sown area reducing by 0.865 million hectares, falling from 3.44 mha last year to 2.575 mha.
• Pulses have also witnessed a notable decline, dropping from 2.146 mha to 1.492 mha.
• The biggest setback has been recorded in oilseeds, where cultivation has more than halved.
• The sown area has fallen from 3.641 million hectares in 2025 to just 1.699 million hectares this year, marking a decline of 1.942 million hectares.

El Niño Raises Concerns for the Rest of the Monsoon

Drought covers 41% of India’s kharif sowing area, and the situation is being aggravated by the rapid development of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

During an El Niño event, warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific disrupt global atmospheric circulation, often leading to below-normal monsoon rainfall across India.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the current El Niño is expected to strengthen through the July-September period and could become one of the strongest events recorded in recent years. If rainfall remains below normal during July, the most important month for kharif sowing, the impact on agricultural production could deepen further.

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Western and Central India Face the Worst Conditions

The drought is expanding rapidly across multiple agricultural regions.

The National Drought Monitor indicates that:

• Western India has the most severe conditions, with 71% of the region under drought.
• Northeast India follows, with 62% of its area affected.
• Central India has 53% under drought conditions.
• Northern India has nearly 46% of its area experiencing drought or near-drought conditions.

These regions collectively account for a substantial share of India’s food grain, cotton, pulses, and oilseed production.

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111 Districts Identified as High-Risk

Recognizing the growing threat, the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare has identified 111 districts as high-priority drought-risk areas.

These districts face a double challenge: below-normal rainfall projected by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and less than 25% irrigation coverage, leaving farmers heavily dependent on rainfall.

Most of these vulnerable districts are spread across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha.

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Food Security and Farmer Livelihoods at Stake

India’s kharif season contributes nearly half of the country’s annual food grain production, making the southwest monsoon critical for national food security. According to government estimates, 55-60% of India’s net sown agricultural area remains rain-fed, with limited irrigation infrastructure available in many regions.

Agricultural experts warn that prolonged rainfall deficits could reduce crop yields, increase pressure on food prices, and affect rural incomes if conditions do not improve during the peak monsoon months.

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