In the wake of the Pahalgam terror assault, India suspended the 64-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), claiming that Pakistan’s continuous cross-border terrorism violates international confidence. Despite decades of conflict, water stability was ensured by the 1960 treaty, which was mediated by the World Bank and gave India the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers and Pakistan 80% of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. However, Pakistan, where more than 80% of agriculture and a third of electricity depend on the Indus basin, is in danger due to India’s decision to terminate the deal, particularly during dry seasons already stretched by climate change. This move highlights the growing challenges of the Indus Water System in the face of geopolitical and environmental pressures.

Climate Change Exacerbates Water Scarcity

The Indus Water System faces major challenges due to climate change, which alters precipitation patterns, temperature, and water flow. There are concerns that the Indus River may become seasonal by 2050 due to decreased flows caused by the melting of the Himalayan and Hindu Kush glaciers, the river’s main water sources. This affects both countries’ capacity to meet demands by worsening water scarcity, especially during dry seasons. As India considers using its infrastructure to limit water flow, Pakistan, which is already dealing with high heat, faces further threats. Once a symbol of collaboration, the treaty today finds it difficult to address these environmental changes, requiring flexible solutions like better water management to maintain the river’s sustainability in the face of the challenges of the Indus Water System.

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Hydropower Disputes and Infrastructure Needs

The IWT has long been tense over hydroelectric developments. Pakistan has objected to India’s Kishanganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) plants, arguing they breach the treaty by lowering downstream flows. While the Ratle project is still before arbitration, the Kishanganga project was affirmed by a court, requiring a minimum flow of 9 cumecs to Pakistan. Indian experts contend that insufficient infrastructure hinders India’s 20% share of the western rivers from being fully utilized, and they support the installation of storage structures to alleviate water scarcity—a proposal that Pakistan rejects under the terms of the treaty. These disputes, which are made worse by climate change, highlight the difficulties facing the Indus Water System and encourage possible cooperation between the two countries on sustainable methods of managing and storing water.

India’s suspension of the IWT comes at a crucial moment for South Asia’s water security. Both nations must negotiate the changing problems of the Indus Water System through communication and flexible approaches to preserve the region’s water future as climate change and geopolitical tensions worsen.

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