China’s energy transition encountered an unexpected hurdle in May 2026 as China’s fossil power generation rebounds despite continued growth in renewable energy capacity. According to the latest energy data by CREA, fossil-fuel-based electricity generation increased by 2% year-on-year, primarily due to exceptionally weak wind conditions that reduced clean power output. Wind speeds recorded in March, April, and May were lower than any corresponding period in the past decade, limiting the contribution of wind energy to the power grid. Without this unusual weather pattern, analysts suggest that rising renewable generation would likely have reduced dependence on coal- and gas-fired power plants.

The rebound highlights the challenges of balancing energy security and decarbonization, even as China continues to lead the world in renewable energy deployment.

Weak Wind Conditions Drive Higher Fossil Fuel Use

The most significant factor behind the increase in fossil power generation was a decline in wind output.

Wind generation fell by 1.1% year-on-year in May, while coal-fired power generation rose by 3.3%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. This trend is notable because 2025 was the first year in a decade when China recorded an annual decline in coal power generation.

Energy experts believe the rise in coal generation may prove temporary, as weather-related reductions in wind speeds are unlikely to persist over the long term.

China’s Power Generation Performance in May 2026

The data shows that renewable energy sources continued to expand overall, particularly solar and hydropower, helping offset some of the shortfall from wind generation.

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Renewable Capacity Growth Remains Strong

Despite the temporary setback, China continued to expand its clean energy infrastructure.

• Wind power capacity additions increased by 6.5% year-on-year.
• Solar capacity additions declined by 52% compared to the exceptionally high levels recorded in the same period last year.
• However, solar installations remained above the levels seen in the first four months of 2023.
• Battery production surged 55.2% year-on-year, supported by growing energy storage demand and exports.

The figures suggest that China’s renewable energy sector remains robust, even as installation rates normalize after last year’s record-breaking growth.

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Energy Imports Face Supply Pressures

Another factor influencing China’s energy landscape was the ongoing disruption to global shipping routes.

Shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz continued to affect energy imports:

Crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in a decade, while coal imports also declined due to relatively high international prices. Refiners responded by drawing down existing inventories, causing average daily refining throughput to fall to its lowest level since 2023.

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New Energy Vehicles Continue to Surge

While fossil power generation increased, China’s clean transportation sector continued to expand rapidly.

• New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 57% of total vehicle production.
• NEV exports more than doubled year-on-year, reaching a record high for the month.
• Production of conventional fuel-powered vehicles fell by 22%.

These trends underscore China’s ongoing transition toward cleaner technologies, even as temporary energy supply challenges affect electricity generation patterns.

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What This Means for China’s Energy Transition

The fact that China’s fossil power generation rebounds in May does not necessarily indicate a reversal of the country’s clean energy ambitions. Instead, it highlights the importance of diversified renewable energy sources, energy storage systems, and grid flexibility in managing weather-related fluctuations.

With solar generation rising 14.3%, hydropower increasing 13.2%, and battery manufacturing booming, China continues to invest heavily in the infrastructure needed to support a lower-carbon future.

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