China has long been at the forefront of global climate discussions as the world’s greatest emitter of greenhouse emissions and a pioneer in renewable energy development. Despite its lofty pledges to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and attain net zero by 2060, recent trends indicate that China’s 2024 Coal Projects’ reliance on coal power remains strong. According to new research from the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), China has begun construction on the most significant combined coal power capacity since 2015. This large-scale development might jeopardize the country’s renewable energy transition and its goal to phase out coal consumption between 2026 and 2030.

A Dual-Faced Energy Approach: Coal vs Renewables

Coal has served as China’s primary energy source for decades, fuelling tremendous industrialization and economic expansion. However, the country has made significant progress in renewable energy in recent years, with record-breaking increases in wind and solar generating capacity. China alone installed 356 gigawatts of renewable energy, which is 4.5 times more than the European Union.

Despite this success, the CREA and GEM analysis indicates a troubling contradiction: while renewable energy capacity grows, China has announced building 94.5 gigawatts of China’s 2024 Coal Projects, representing 93% of all new coal projects globally.

“China’s rapid expansion of renewable energy has the potential to reshape its power system, but this opportunity is being undermined by the simultaneous large-scale expansion of coal power,” said Qi Qin, the report’s primary author and a China expert at CREA. The worry is that rather than replacing coal with renewables, China would merely add more energy sources without meaningfully lowering its reliance on fossil fuels.

The country’s increasing coal production reflects the continued use of coal in China’s energy system. Between 2020 and 2024, coal output increased from 3.9 billion to 4.8 billion tonnes, despite President Xi Jinping’s 2021 vow to “strictly control” coal power projects. If this trend continues, China’s ability to meet its emission limits could be jeopardized.

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Concerns About China’s 2024 Coal Projects and Expansion

Climate analysts and environmental organizations have expressed major worries about China’s continued coal power expansion, arguing that the country must put more restrictions to attain a meaningful move in the direction of renewable energy. Despite its pledges to reduce carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060, China flourishes to finalize new coal-fired power facilities, potentially undermining global climate ambitions. Critics warn that without rapid and dramatic policy reforms, the country risks prioritizing energy security over sustainable energy transformation, committing to a high-carbon future.

However, recent developments show that China’s coal expansion may be stalling. In the first half of China’s 2024 Coal Projects, new coal power plant permits fell by 83%, indicating a potential change in investment priorities. Furthermore, a survey done in November 2024 by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) discovered that 52% of experts believe China’s coal usage will peak as early as 2025. This shows that while coal remains essential to China’s energy policy, its long-term supremacy is becoming more dubious. China’s ability to meet its climate pledges will rely on strengthening its renewable energy policy and expediting the transition to clean energy.

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Future Energy Policies and Transition Plans

However, coal power remained high in the latter months of 2024 despite the country’s ability to generate enough renewable energy to meet rising electrical demand. This implies that coal plants are still being prioritized in some areas, potentially due to regional energy security concerns and the economic clout of coal mining firms.

“Chinese coal power and mining companies are sponsoring and building new coal plants beyond what is needed,” said GEM research analyst Christine Shearer. “The continued pursuit of coal is crowding out the country’s use of lower-cost clean energy.”

Not all experts are utterly pessimistic about China’s energy future. David Fishman, a senior manager at the Lantau Group, acknowledged the report’s results but indicated that the current spike in coal power could be a temporary market phenomenon rather than a purposeful long-term plan. “The surge in coal power late last year may be a short-term symptom of a market transitioning to true economic offtake… and not a sign of a system designed to benefit coal generators,” Fishman told the news agency AFP.

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will likely provide more specific emissions and energy regulations guidelines. The government is also required to publish updated emissions objectives for the 2015 Paris Agreement. These policy pronouncements will be critical in evaluating whether China can reduce coal dependence and expedite its clean energy transition.

Environmentalists argue that China must take more dramatic measures, such as imposing a total cap on coal-fired power generation and developing a clear timeline for coal phase-out. “The 2030 target for installed renewable energy capacity should be raised to expedite the replacement of coal power with renewable energy, aiming to achieve peak carbon emissions in the power sector before 2025,” said Gao Yuhe, the project coordinator for Greenpeace East Asia.

Conclusion

China’s energy strategy remains a delicate balancing act between economic stability, energy security, and climate goals. While the country’s expansion of renewable energy is admirable, its persistent investment in coal power presents a substantial challenge to meeting its carbon neutrality goals. The following policy frameworks and emissions targets will be critical in determining whether China can effectively transition from a coal-dominated to a cleaner, more sustainable energy system.

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