As global demand for both food and renewable energy surges, the projection that biofuel is to consume 27% of global cereal output highlights the intensifying pressure on agricultural resources. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, published on July 15, 2025, anticipates that by 2034, 27% of global cereal production will be set aside for biofuels and industrial uses. This is a monumental increase from the original estimates.

While this trend is expected to grow as emerging economies consume and export more, critical examination of food security, sustainability, and environmental implications must be taken into account.

What Is the Projected Share of Global Cereal Output Used for Biofuels By 2034?

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 projects that biofuel is to consume 27% of global cereal output by 2034. This includes crops such as maize and wheat, which are used for ethanol and other industrial applications.

How Does This Compare to Previous Forecasts?

This projection marks a notable increase from the 2024 report, which estimated that 23% of cereals would be used for biofuels and industrial purposes by 2033. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected growth in biofuel demand, particularly in emerging markets, and updated data on agricultural trends, reinforcing the trend that biofuel is to consume 27% of global cereal output.

Also Read: US EPA Proposes Raising Biofuel Blending Targets Through 2027

Which Countries Are Driving the Growth in Biofuel Demand?

Emerging economies, particularly India, Brazil, and Indonesia, are driving demand for biofuels. We currently expect biofuels to grow at a rate of 0.9% per year until 2034. For example, India is looking to increase ethanol blending in petrol based on maize and sugarcane. Brazil and Indonesia are expanding their biofuel use, capitalizing on their agricultural growing advantages.

Also Read: AI Could Slash Carbon Emissions By Boosting Efficiency In Transport, Energy, And Agriculture

What Are the Implications for Food Security?

As only 40% of cereals are projected to end up in direct human consumption, food security concerns have grown, especially in lower-income countries, where it is expected the average per capita daily caloric intake from animal products will only be at 143 kilocalories per person per day, far below the FAO benchmark of 300 kilocalories for a healthy diet. The trend that biofuel is to consume 27% of global cereal output could drive up food prices, potentially worsening hunger and malnutrition in vulnerable regions.

How Is Cereal Production Expected to Change Over the Next Decade?

Global cereal production is expected to grow at a rate of 1.1%, primarily driven by a 0.9% increase in yields. However, the harvested areas will increase at a slower rate of 0.14%, which is below half of what it was (0.33%) for the last decade. Intensified agricultural practices without the reduction of farmland are clearer as demand rises.

What Is the Consumption Trend By Region?

India and Southeast Asian countries will be responsible for 39% of global cereal consumption growth expected by 2034 (up from 32% in the last decade). Meanwhile, China’s share will drastically fall from 32% to 13%, essentially a drop of roughly 55%. As dietary patterns shift and economic activity continues to evolve, China’s relevance for future growth is expected to decline.

How Is the Demand for Animal-Source Foods Affecting Cereal Use?

Rising incomes in middle-income countries are fueling demand for animal-source foods, increasing the need for cereals as animal feed. By 2034, 33% of cereal production is expected to support livestock, driven by a projected 17% increase in meat, dairy, and egg production. Global per capita calorie intake from animal products is projected to increase by 6%, with lower-middle-income countries expected to see a 24% rise.

Also Read: Hydrogen Fuel At Half The Cost? Scientists Reveal A Game-Changing Catalyst

What Are the Environmental Impacts of These Trends?

The expansion of croplands and livestock to meet food and fuel demands, including the trend where biofuel is to consume 27% of global cereal output, is anticipated to increase direct agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 6% by 2034. However, improvements in agricultural productivity are expected to reduce the carbon intensity of on-farm emissions, offering some mitigation. The table below summarizes key environmental projections.

Also Read: The Environmental Impact Of Fossil Fuel Burning And What Can Be Done

Are There Any Alternatives to Food-Based Feedstocks for Biofuels?

Cellulosic feedstocks are alternatives to food-based feedstocks, including crop residues, energy crops, and woody biomass, that do not compete with food. Advanced feedstocks are not expected to grow considerably in biofuel production, as the OECD-FAO report estimates that, by 2034, food-based crops, primarily cereals and sugar crops, will remain the most critical feedstocks in biofuel production.

FAQ

1. What is biofuel?

Biofuel is a renewable fuel derived from biological materials, such as plants and animal waste, and is used as an alternative to fossil fuels. Examples include ethanol and biodiesel.

2. Why is there an increase in biofuel production?

The rise is driven by efforts to reduce GHG emissions, achieve energy independence, and support agricultural economies through policies promoting biofuel blending.

3. What are the benefits and drawbacks of using cereals for biofuels?

Benefits: Reduces reliance on fossil fuels, supports rural economies, and enhances energy security.

Drawbacks: Competes with food production, potentially increasing food prices and threatening food security, with limited environmental benefits unless managed sustainably.

Also Read: India’s Green Warehousing Set To Quadruple By 2030 Amid Sustainability Drive