Global warming is speeding up, according to a new study published on the Science Daily website that presents the first statistically significant evidence of an acceleration in Earth’s long-term warming trend. Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) found that, after removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, the planet has warmed at an average rate of around 0.35°C per decade over the past 10 years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015.
Published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the study analyzed five major global temperature datasets and found the acceleration with more than 98% statistical certainty, suggesting the change indicates a genuine long-term climate trend rather than short-term natural variability.
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Scientists Detect Sharp Acceleration in Global Warming, New Study Finds
The researchers examined temperature records from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5 to isolate the underlying warming trend. By filtering out temporary climate influences often referred to as “noise”, they found that global warming began accelerating between 2013 and 2015, with the evidence becoming particularly clear around 2015.
According to co-author Grant Foster, removing natural climate fluctuations allows scientists to detect the long-term warming signal more clearly, revealing that recent warming is occurring at the fastest pace since instrumental temperature records began in 1880.
Five Major Datasets Point to the Same Conclusion
One of the study’s strongest findings is the conformity across multiple independent datasets, each developed using different methodologies.
Recent warming rate |
~0.35°C per decade (past 10 years) |
Previous warming rate |
Just under 0.2°C per decade (1970-2015) |
Statistical confidence |
More than 98% |
Temperature datasets analyzed |
NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5 |
Visible acceleration |
Around 2013-2015 |
The researchers used both quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model, and both statistical methods independently confirmed that the warming rate has increased.
Natural Climate Variations Were Carefully Removed
Short-term climate events can temporarily change global temperatures. For example, El Niño typically raises global temperatures by releasing heat from the Pacific Ocean, while major volcanic eruptions can temporarily cool the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space. Solar activity also contributes to smaller fluctuations.
By accounting for these factors, researchers concluded that the recent warming trend cannot be explained solely by natural variability. Even after adjusting for El Niño and periods of stronger solar activity, 2023 and 2024 remained the two warmest years on record.
Faster Warming Sparks Concern for Climate Targets
The study was designed to measure whether warming has accelerated, rather than determine the exact reasons behind it. However, the researchers noted that current climate models are capable of producing periods of faster warming, mainly under continued greenhouse gas emissions.
- If global warming is speeding up at the current pace, scientists warn that the world could exceed the Paris Agreement‘s 1.5°C long-term warming target before 2030.
- While a single year above 1.5°C does not mean the threshold has been permanently crossed, sustained warming over several years would represent a major milestone.
Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf emphasized that the future course remains largely in human hands. According to the study, the speed at which the planet continues to warm will depend primarily on how quickly global carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas are reduced. The findings uphold the need for faster climate action as rising temperatures continue to reshape weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies around the world.
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