Stronger El Niño conditions across August-October 2026 are expected to shape global weather patterns, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate phenomenon will continue strengthening into a strong El Niño event during the August-October period. According to WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, multi-model forecasts indicate that seasonal-average sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are likely to exceed 2.9°C, signaling one of the strongest El Niño phases in recent years.

The outlook is further intensified by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, creating conditions that could increase the risk of droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires across several regions worldwide. The update serves as a critical warning for governments and communities to strengthen preparedness as global temperatures continue to rise.

El Niño Expected to Strengthen Further

The WMO’s latest assessment indicates that El Niño will steadily intensify throughout the August-October 2026 season.

• El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern driven by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Unlike isolated weather events, El Niño influences atmospheric circulation on a global scale, affecting rainfall patterns, temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events.
• WMO also emphasized that the organization classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, noting that the term “Super El Niño” is not part of its official classification system.

Key Climate Indicators for August-October 2026

UN and WMO Call for Urgent Climate Action

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that El Niño is arriving against the backdrop of unusual global warming, stating that the phenomenon is “inside the house and turning up the heat.” He stressed that continued fossil fuel expansion is worsening climate risks and called for urgent action to address the root causes of climate change.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that while forecasts cannot prevent disasters, timely climate information enables governments and communities to prepare before impacts occur. She said the current Stronger El Niño conditions across August-October 2026 provide an opportunity to improve preparedness and reduce climate-related losses through early action.

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Regions Likely to Experience Major Impacts

The seasonal outlook predicts an overwhelming probability of above-average temperatures across most land areas, including Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to reflect a classic strong El Niño event.

• Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America and southeastern South America.
• Meanwhile, the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe are more likely to experience below-average rainfall, increasing drought concerns.

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Why the Forecast Matters

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years, last nine to twelve months, and often reach peak intensity between November and February. Their impacts vary depending on intensity and interactions with other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.

As the world continues to experience record-breaking ocean temperatures and rising global heat, WMO says accurate seasonal forecasts are becoming increasingly important for disaster preparedness, water management, agriculture and public health. The organization will publish its next comprehensive El Niño/La Niña Update in September 2026, providing further guidance as climate conditions continue to evolve.

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