US cities may face desert-like conditions by 2080, according to a new study published in the journal PeerJ, highlighting how climate change could dramatically reshape the country’s natural landscapes over the next five decades. Using high-resolution satellite observations, machine learning, and climate projections, researchers from the Open Earth Monitor Cyberinfrastructure project found that parts of the American West and Southwest are likely to experience rapid expansion of desert ecosystems under a high-emissions scenario. The study estimates that the U.S. desert biome could expand by nearly 182,000 square miles, increasing from about 6% to almost 12% of the nation’s land area by the end of the century.

As vegetation zones shift, several major cities may transition from forests or grasslands to desert environments, bringing significant implications for water availability, biodiversity, agriculture, and urban resilience.

Climate Change Could Redraw America’s Landscape

Rather than focusing only on rising temperatures, the researchers examined how biomes, large ecological regions defined by climate and vegetation, are expected to change by 2061-2080.

The findings suggest that the central United States will become hotter and drier, with grasslands gradually giving way to desert vegetation. In the East, forests adapted to wetter climates are projected to shift toward drier ecosystems better suited to prolonged heat and reduced rainfall.

Meanwhile, deserts already present in Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern California are expected to spread into neighboring states, including Texas and Colorado.

Cities Most at Risk

The study identified 10 cities where the dominant natural biome is projected to shift to a desert classification if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.

• The largest city on the list is Bakersfield, California, home to more than 400,000 residents.
• Other cities include Reno, Nevada, Lancaster, California, Pueblo, Colorado, Sparks, Nevada, Rio Rancho, New Mexico, Kennewick, Pasco, Richland in Washington, and Grand Junction, Colorado.

These projections are based on changes in regional climate rather than urban development, meaning the surrounding natural ecosystems are expected to become increasingly arid.

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What Desert-Like Conditions Mean

The warning that US cities may face desert-like conditions by 2080 does not mean these urban areas will suddenly resemble the Sahara Desert.

Instead, scientists expect gradual ecological changes, including:

• Reduced vegetation cover
• Longer and more frequent droughts
• Increased wildfire risk
• Higher temperatures
• Greater water stress
• Expansion of drought-tolerant plant species

Many regions currently dominated by forests or grasslands could transition into ecosystems with sparse vegetation better adapted to hot, dry conditions.

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Water and Biodiversity Could Face Growing Pressure

The projected biome shifts could have significant consequences beyond changing landscapes.

Drier conditions are likely to place additional pressure on already strained water resources across the western United States. Agriculture, urban water supplies, and natural habitats may all be affected as rainfall patterns continue to change.

Scientists also warn that wildlife adapted to cooler forests and grasslands may struggle to survive as habitats shrink or disappear. At the same time, invasive species and drought-resistant vegetation could expand into newly arid regions.

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Why Emissions Still Matter

Importantly, the projections are based on the RCP 8.5 high-emissions scenario, which assumes greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the century.

Many climate researchers emphasize that future outcomes are not fixed. Lower emissions, stronger climate policies, improved land management, and ecosystem restoration could reduce the severity of these projected biome changes.

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