The​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that there is a 55% chance that the upcoming La Niña is likely to be weak from December 2025 to February 2026. Even though the impacts of a weak La Niña are less significant and less predictable than those of a strong event, La Niña can still grab hold of global weather patterns and influence them. Although it is a common feature for a La Niña event to cool down temporarily the global average of temperatures, many areas can experience warmer-than-normal conditions.

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What the WMO’s Forecast Says

On the basis of WMO’s update, as of mid-November 2025, the oceanic and atmospheric situations were rather borderline for La Niña in the equatorial Pacific. So, for the periods of January–March and February–April 2026, WMO anticipates that the likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions will be around 65% to 75%. According to the forecast, the opposite event, El Niño, which is famous for its striking global weather patterns, is off the scene for that period.

With appropriate timing, warnings certainly can give the needed leverage to the government officials, farmers, and communities in imposing effective preparations – in turn, lives could be saved, and the impact of the losses in the sensitive sectors, like agriculture, energy, and transport, could be lessened.

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Why This La Niña Is Expected to Be Weak and What Comes Next

The reason behind the classification of this La Niña as probably “weak” is basically because of the borderline indicators: the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific are only slightly cooler than the average, and the atmospheric signals are weak. Moreover, according to WMO’s prediction, there is a considerable chance of a shift from neutral to early 2026, indicating that a short-lived weak La Niña is plausible.

According to the WMO, a weak La Niña such as the one under discussion could still provoke extreme events – such as floods and droughts – by disturbing rainfall and temperature patterns. The ripple effect of this could be seen in the agriculture, water, energy, and public health sectors.

The limited cooling signal and the increased likelihood of a return to ENSO-neutral conditions have led experts to advise that one shouldn’t expect strong La Niña-type weather worldwide. Nevertheless, on top of a warming background caused by climate change, even a weak event can strengthen the weather extremes.

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What This Means Going Forward

Agricultural planners, water resource managers, policymakers, and disaster-management agencies should see this “weak La Niña” prediction as a prompt for caution rather than an assurance of good weather. The chance of floods, droughts, heatwaves, or unseasonal rainfall is still there.

In summary, the WMO forecast emphasizes that the upcoming La Niña is likely to be weak, yet even a weak La Niña can have major global and regional climate ​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌effects.

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