As the Earth’s temperature continues to rise, over 75% of the World’s land is becoming drier at an alarming rate. According to a United Nations assessment from 2024, more than three-quarters of the World’s terrain has become drier than it was 30 years ago. Drylands now cover 40.6% of the World’s territory (excluding Antarctica). Along with this environmental transformation, the human population in these dry zones has increased dramatically, doubling in the last 30 years to 2.3 billion people, or more than a fifth of humanity.

If climate change continues on its worst-case path, this figure could rise to 5 billion by the end of the century. Over 75% of the World’s land is becoming drier, and the simultaneous escalation of drying landscapes and expanding people poses a significant threat to ecosystems, livelihoods, and global stability.

The Global Drying Trend

The drying process is not limited to a particular place; it affects continents. Areas such as the western United States, Brazil, much of Europe, Asia, and Central Africa are experiencing continuous moisture drops. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, 3% of the planet’s humid zones might become drylands by 2100. According to projections, this development will affect the United States Midwest, central Mexico, sections of Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, the Mediterranean region, the Black Sea Coast, southern Africa, and southern Australia. Surprisingly, no region of the World is predicted to transition from dry to humid conditions, indicating a one-way trend towards aridity.

Drought and Desertification: Understanding the Difference

Drought and desertification are not the same thing. Droughts are brief periods of low rainfall that gradually diminish, allowing ecosystems to recover. Desertification, conversely, is a permanent process in which fertile land declines into barren, desert-like conditions due to human-caused variables, most notably climate change and unsustainable land usage. Drylands—such as grasslands, savannas, and some forests—are particularly vulnerable. Currently, 25-35% of these places are experiencing desertification, a process that renders soil infertile and unable to return to its natural state.

Climate scientist Michela Biasutti of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, who has researched the African Sahel, says, “Historically, people mistook drought with desertification. During the Sahel drought of the late 1960s and 1970s, there was concern that the desert had progressed permanently. But as the rains came, so did the grass.” Drought shows soil health only when precipitation returns—healthy soil recovers, whereas deteriorated soil indicates desertification risk.

Also Read: The Causes And Consequences Of Soil Deterioration

Drivers of Desertification

Climate change has increased drought frequency by 29% since 2000, with forecasts indicating that over 75% of the World’s land is becoming drier and the World’s population will endure drought by 2050. Prolonged dry spells kill plants and soil bacteria, resulting in irreversible desert-like conditions when exacerbated by inadequate land management. Overgrazing erodes soil, losing 24 billion tonnes of valuable topsoil each year. Conventional farming methods, such as tilling and the use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides, deplete nutrients and kill beneficial bacteria, causing severe land degradation.

Deforestation speeds up the process by eliminating trees that hold moisture in the soil. Half of the tropical forests in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia have been cleared for cattle, soy, and palm oil. Overuse of aquifers, such as the depletion that reduced the Aral Sea to the Aralkum Desert, demonstrates how irrigation can backfire. Meanwhile, population expansion and urbanisation strain local resources such as ecosystems, water, and farmland, leading to further desertification as rural livelihoods collapse and people move to cities.

The Consequences of Desertification

Desertification degrades fertile soil, reducing agricultural and livestock yields by up to 50% by 2050 if current trends continue. It also restricts wood for fuel and construction, exacerbating poverty and hunger, particularly among the resource-dependent poor. Overdrawn aquifers in dry regions worsen water scarcity, while degraded ecosystems jeopardise biodiversity, including species and livelihoods.

Dust storms, more common in desertified areas, contain harmful particles and viruses, accounting for 15-50% of cardiac mortality in countries such as the Sahara and East Asia. Shifting sands bury agriculture and disrupt infrastructure, while dead trees ignite wildfires. Forced migration from inhospitable terrain causes resource conflicts elsewhere, while released soil carbon and fewer plants to absorb CO₂ contribute to climate change.

Also Read: Soil Pollution Prevention Methods

Can Desertification Be Reversed?

The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) estimates that desertification, land degradation, and drought cost the globe $878 billion annually. Though believed to be permanent, restoration is feasible with a diligent effort. Rehabilitating 1 billion hectares might reduce poverty, increase carbon sequestration, and improve biodiversity and water management, thus mitigating climate change.

China’s Loess Plateau, once a prosperous region that became barren, exemplifies prosperity. Terracing, tree planting, and check dams reduced erosion, restored water flow, and revitalised agriculture, resulting in a carbon sink. However, non-native trees might put a strain on water resources. Africa’s Great Green Wall, which aims to restore 100 million hectares across the Sahel by 2030, has reclaimed 30 million hectares but is struggling with funding, species selection, and community support. “It can’t be top-down,” Biasutti explains. “Villages sustaining saplings for multiple purposes ensures longevity.”

Lessons from Restoration Efforts

The evolution of the Great Green Wall emphasises the importance of community-based, multi-purpose methods. Check dams, native grasses, and rotational grazing helped restore productivity and promote sustainable tourism in Bolivia’s Altiplano. Urban regions such as Dakar and Senegal use tree planting to counteract encroaching deserts, while mini forests—dense native plants pioneered by Akira Miyawaki—restore soil and cool cities and promote biodiversity in areas as tiny as 50 square feet.

Also Read: Water Conservation Techniques For Drought-Prone US Regions

Solutions to Stem the Tide

Nature-based solutions, such as planting appropriate species (e.g., desert Acacias) and water management (terracing, rainfall collection, drip irrigation), are critical for effective restoration. Regenerative agriculture, which includes no-till farming, cover crops, and agroforestry, rebuilds soil while sequestering carbon. Local knowledge, such as the Sahel’s half-moon pits or Burkina Faso’s zai holes, improves water and nutrient retention. Collaboration among governments, non-governmental organisations, and communities, supported by initiatives such as the Great Green Wall Accelerator’s $14 billion pledge, is vital, as is teaching locals and monitoring aridity using cutting-edge technologies.

A Call to Action

Organisations such as the UNEP, FAO, IUCN, and The Nature Conservancy are leading restoration efforts. Still, global efforts are faltering—COP16’s recent failure to agree on drought action highlights the difficulty. As drylands grow and desertification threatens billions, combining high- and low-tech remedies with community stewardship provides hope. Without immediate, concerted action, over 75% of the World’s land is becoming drier, and the dry future coming in 2100 may become humanity’s permanent reality.

Also Read: China Saw Decline In Soil Erosion Area In 2024 Amid Ongoing Environmental Gains