The take-up of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the UK appears set to miss the government’s first annual mandate, according to official production data released by the Department for Transport (DfT). SAF accounted for only 1.6% of fuel supplied to UK flights, according to figures covering the majority of 2025. This is less than the 2% requirement set in January. Critics have warned that the UK’s sustainable aviation fuel mandate at risk might erode trust in the nation’s aviation decarbonization pathway just as development plans at major airports pick up steam. This deficit has prompted worries across the aviation and climate policy sector.

The purpose of the SAF mandate was to encourage fuel suppliers to switch from conventional jet fuel to lower-carbon substitutes progressively. Due to variations in feedstocks and production techniques, airplanes that burn SAF are thought to have substantially lower lifecycle emissions, even though they still produce comparable amounts of carbon dioxide during flight. Despite persistent skepticism from scientists and environmental organizations regarding whether supply can scale quickly enough, SAF is widely seen by policymakers as the sector’s primary path to emissions reduction because commercial aviation, especially long-haul travel, has few technological alternatives to fossil fuels.

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SAF Targets and Current Supply Constraints

• The mandate requires SAF to account for 2% of aviation fuel in 2025, rising sharply to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040.
• Future aims include power-to-liquid and second-generation fuels, which are considered more sustainable in the long term.
• According to DfT data, recycled cooking oil from Asia, mainly China, has been the only source of SAF supply thus far.
• By early October 2025, almost 10 billion liters of jet fuel had been consumed by UK aircraft, with about 160 million liters of SAF used.

The DfT has emphasized that the figures released are preliminary and that complete data won’t be accessible until November 2026 due to verification delays. SAF quantities are steadily increasing, according to a spokeswoman, and not all providers have yet disclosed their fuel consumption. However, the preliminary figures have heightened concerns that the UK’s sustainable aviation fuel mandate at risk may become a recurrent problem as regulations become more stringent.

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Global Context, Policy Support, and Industry Response

• Even as airports like Gatwick and Luton grow, the government sees SAF as essential to balancing aviation expansion with climate goals.
• Heathrow anticipates reaching 3% SAF usage by 2025 and has implemented incentives, such as lowering landing fees for planes utilizing SAF.
• Airlines caution that supplies are still concentrated at major hubs, making it more difficult for smaller airports and regional flights to comply.
• IATA estimates that SAF accounted for only 0.6% of global jet fuel demand in 2025, underscoring the continued limitations of global production.

The government’s SAF bill, which is presently moving through the House of Lords, will provide income certainty through assured pricing systems, according to aviation minister Keir Mather, who called decarbonization a “licence for growth.” He contended that this ought to lower investment risks and increase producer confidence. IATA, the international airline association, has criticized mandates, with director general Willie Walsh urging governments to revamp incentives after alerting them to the stagnation of global production development.

Representatives from the industry are nevertheless cautiously optimistic. The chief executive of Sustainable Aviation, Duncan McCourt, stated that he was certain the mandate would be fulfilled and that the preliminary numbers still demonstrated strong SAF use. Policymakers and the aviation industry are keeping a close eye on the UK’s sustainable aviation fuel mandate at risk because of growing prices and the lack of large-scale production of advanced fuels.

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