Climate experts and environmentalists are deeply concerned about Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. His track record of rejecting scientific warnings and passionate support for fossil fuels has generated concerns about the probable reversal of climate legislation. While his empowerment of the far right undermines expectations for collective action on global issues, it is critical to examine the real effects of Trump’s changes to US climate Policy.
Though Trump has not issued a specific climate program for his second term, his previous actions, public statements, appointments, and campaign rhetoric provide valuable information. These factors predict a bleak future for domestic and international climate measures. However, significant continuities with prior administrations persist, showing systemic issues in US climate policy.
Nine Climate Impacts to Anticipate
1. Still ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’
Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” catchphrase represents his goal for the US oil and gas business. It also reflects a more significant reality: US energy policy has historically prioritized fossil fuel output. Since Obama’s presidency, US oil output has increased dramatically, reaching 19.4 billion barrels per day in 2023—more than any other country in history. According to Gautam Jain, an energy expert at Columbia University, oil and gas corporations continue to prioritize shareholder profits through stock buybacks and dividends, indicating confidence in a fossil fuel-driven future. Trump’s changes to US climate Policy will likely exacerbate this trend by doubling fossil fuel expansion despite the critical need for a global shift to renewable energy.
2. Withdrawing from International Agreements
During his first term, Trump’s changes to US climate Policy were seen in his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and he again, in his current term, did the same. He is anticipated to go further and withdraw the United States’ membership from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This approach would seriously weaken international climate diplomacy. According to Jain, rejoining the UNFCCC would necessitate Senate approval—a difficult task given present political realities. Such a retreat would pass the mantle of climate leadership to other countries, most notably China.
China’s dominant position in renewable energy manufacturing and processing places it at the forefront of the green transformation. Economists Matthew Carl Ives and Natalie Sum Yue Chung argue that China’s enhanced ability to scale up sustainable energy production has surpassed the United States.
3. Climate Finance Shortfalls
A United States exit from global climate negotiations would seriously affect vulnerable communities. Under Joe Biden, the United States gave billions of dollars to poor countries’ renewable energy and climate adaptation efforts, but it fell short of its due contribution. According to Oxford economist Sarah Colenbrander, the United States, the world’s largest economy, should contribute $43.5 billion to climate financing annually but provided only $9.3 billion in 2021. Trump’s return may aggravate this disparity, leaving developing countries to face the brunt of climate risks with minimal assistance.
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4. The Future of Biden’s Green Tax Credits
Trump’s administration may keep some Biden-era clean energy expenditures, such as renewable energy tax credits, in place, especially given these advantages are accruing in Republican-led states. However, subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to be eliminated. Reduced EV subsidies would slow the transition to cleaner transportation by making EVs less affordable. This and Biden’s 100% tax on Chinese-made EVs may impede progress toward a decarbonized transportation industry.
5. Methane Regulations Under Threat
Methane emissions, a significant aim for decreasing short-term global warming, may face regulatory rollbacks under Trump. Biden proposed a federal levy on methane emissions from oil and gas activities, seeing it as a rapid and effective solution to climate change. However, Trump is anticipated to reverse this strategy, putting industrial profits ahead of environmental concerns. This reversal would cut off a critical lifeline for slowing the rate of global heating.
6. A Nuclear Energy Revival
Nuclear energy is one area in which Trump may support climate goals. His support for this low-carbon energy source appears to be linked to preserving military capabilities and supply chains related to civil nuclear technologies. While nuclear power provides a cleaner energy source, its expansion under Trump will likely prioritize geopolitical goals over environmental concerns.
7. Science and Governance: Regressive Turn
Trump’s contempt for science could result in dramatic shifts in environmental governance. Eric Nast, an expert in environmental governance, discusses how Trump’s first term changed the language on federal web pages to deny climate change. In his second term, Trump may portray environmental rollbacks as efforts to improve “transparency” and “citizen science” while ignoring academic knowledge. These rhetorical shifts may disguise initiatives to undermine air pollution and environmental restrictions, further undermining public trust in scientific institutions.
8. Privatized Climate Solutions
As climate problems worsen, privatized responses emerge, particularly among the wealthy. Private firefighting services in places like Los Angeles are increasingly used to defend affluent estates from wildfires. Doug Specht, a geographer at the University of Westminster, sees this tendency as a sign of rising inequality, with the wealthy able to purchase bespoke climate measures while public resources remain stretched thin. Such privatization highlights the more significant issues of combating climate change in a fundamentally unequal society.
9. Exploiting the Arctic
Trump’s interest in the Arctic reflects his desire to exploit newly accessible resources. Ice melts in a region four times faster than the world average, releasing massive deposits of oil, gas, and key minerals. Engineer Tricia Stadnyk worries that Trump’s plans may hasten resource extraction in the Arctic, ignoring the ecological and geopolitical hazards involved.
Also Read: The Climate Cost Of Trump’s Tariffs
Continuities and Challenges
While Trump’s changes to US climate Policy mark a significant departure, they also highlight structural difficulties with US climate policy. For example, the increase in fossil fuel production began under Obama, and despite his climate-friendly rhetoric, Biden’s climate financing contributions remain insufficient. These continuities emphasize the difficulties of making significant progress in a political and economic system dominated by corporate interests. Furthermore, Trump’s proposed policies would accelerate global warming by scaling back methane rules and withdrawing from international agreements. However, the trajectory of the US energy sector implies that significant policy shifts may necessitate more profound structural changes that are beyond the purview of any one government.
Looking Ahead
Trump’s return to power will likely postpone or undo many of Biden’s climate victories, further isolating the United States from global climate leadership. Trump’s changes to US climate Policy would put short-term economic pros ahead of long-term environmental sustainability, undermining attempts to address the climate catastrophe. However, this moment highlights the urgency for systemic reform. The challenges ahead will require collaborative effort and resilience, from improving international collaboration to resolving domestic inequities in climate consequences. As the world watches, the stakes for US climate policy—and the global response to climate change—could hardly be higher. Whether Trump’s presidency exacerbates or galvanizes resistance will be determined by the acts of officials, scientists, and individuals.
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