As China approaches the halfway point of its commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030—a commitment made by President Xi Jinping at the UN General Assembly in September 2020—2025 represents a pivotal moment for the country. Decoupling carbon emissions from GDP growth has advanced significantly over the last five years, thanks to this “dual carbon” plan, which aims for net zero by 2060. Nevertheless, despite a sharp increase in renewable energy infrastructure, China’s growing economy keeps up with energy demand, maintaining reliance on fossil fuels. Rapid investment in a green transition over the next five years, involving all parties, particularly polluting industries, is demanded. China’s government has implemented measures to increase emissions reductions, improve energy efficiency, and strengthen regulation of carbon-intensive industries as it works to update its 2030 roadmap. This article analyses recent policy changes, evaluates China’s Carbon Goals and progress toward its energy and climate goals, and identifies future obstacles.

Progress on China’s Carbon and Energy Targets

Over the past five years, China has released important policy documents as part of its increased efforts to meet energy consumption and carbon reduction targets. Specific goals are outlined in the 2030 Action Plan (2021), the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), and the 2024–2025 Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction (2024). A significant improvement over 2023’s 0.5 percent fall, energy consumption per GDP fell by 3.8 percent in 2024, surpassing the 2.5 percent goal. Slightly less than the target of 3.9 percent, carbon emissions decreased by 3.4 percent. However, specifically, China’s Carbon Goals were derailed when the COVID-19 epidemic and an energy crisis in 2021 caused attention to shift to economic recovery and the extraction of fossil fuels. With the 2025 Government Work Report establishing a modest 3 percent energy intensity decrease, analysis indicates that China may fall short of its 13.5 percent energy intensity and 18 percent carbon intensity reduction targets for 2020–2025, indicating a difficult road ahead.

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Growth in Renewables

China has been a leader in the implementation of renewable energy despite obstacles. 373 million kilowatts of newly installed renewable capacity were added 2024, representing a 23 percent increase and accounting for 86 percent of all new capacity. This is significantly more than the 14th Five-Year Plan’s 50 percent target. Wind and solar capacity reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, six years ahead of the 2030 target of 1.2 billion, while total renewable capacity reached 1.889 billion kilowatts, or 56 percent of the total nationwide. With wind and solar providing 1.83 trillion kWh, renewable electricity generation increased by 19% to 3.46 trillion kWh in 2024, surpassing household use (1.5 trillion kWh) and matching tertiary industry consumption. By encouraging innovation and lessening reliance on fossil fuels, this expansion creates a solid basis for decarbonization.

China’s Carbon Goals: Shift from Energy Consumption to Carbon Emissions Reduction

With an emphasis on overall emissions and intensity rather than just energy use, China is shifting from a “dual energy consumption control” to a “dual control of carbon emissions” approach. This change is described in the State Council’s August 2024 plan, which goes into force during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) and introduces industrial restrictions, carbon evaluation systems, and product carbon footprint criteria. A key component of China’s climate plan is the establishment of industry-specific carbon accounting, a national GHG emissions database, and improved monitoring capabilities by the end of 2025.

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Energy Conservation, CO2 Reduction, and Emerging Standards

The May 2024 release of the 2024–2025 Action Plan, which aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in power generation from 36.2 percent in 2022 to 39 percent by 2025, highlights the urgency in high-emission industries like steel and petrochemicals. Along with grid improvements like transmission lines and microgrids, it encourages using natural gas, alternative fuels, and the phase-out of coal. A framework of 15 secondary and 45 tertiary standards that address GHG accounting, mitigation, and adaptation was presented in May 2025 as part of the National Climate Change Standard System Construction Plan. Concurrently, environmental legislation is consolidated into 1,188 items in the draft Ecological and Environmental Code, which was made available for review on June 13 and was released on April 30, 2025. While adaptation methods concentrate on resilience and risk assessment, their “Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Peaking” part requires carbon regulations, trading systems, and ecological sinks.

Looking Ahead: Implications for Companies

China’s regulatory environment will become more stringent as the 14th Five-Year Plan ends in 2025, placing more pressure on companies to comply. More aggressive goals will probably be set in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), which will pressure businesses to improve carbon accounting and conform to green standards. To fulfill national goals by 2030, companies must accelerate decarbonization while negotiating a complicated policy environment that balances economic growth and climate leadership. China’s journey serves as a global sustainable development paradigm, reflecting impressive advancements and enduring difficulties.

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