According to Satvinder Singh, deputy secretary general of the ASEAN Economic Community, despite persistent tensions in the South China Sea, Southeast Asia’s aim to grow ASEAN’s Blue Economy Growth, particularly in the fisheries sector, remains unshaken. Singh underlined during a May 23, 2025, media briefing that Asean’s ambition to become the fourth-largest economy in the world by 2045 will not be derailed by maritime disputes involving claimant states such as Vietnam and the Philippines. Experts caution that the region’s economic and environmental advancements may be jeopardized if these geopolitical issues are not resolved.

ASEAN’s Blue Economy Ambitions

A key component of ASEAN’s sustainable development plan is the blue economy, which includes marine transportation, offshore energy, tourism, and fisheries. Singh emphasized that this year, the implementation plan for the 2023-adopted ASEAN Blue Economy Framework will be completed. By 2030, this industry is expected to create 43 million jobs and generate US$3 trillion in economic value, according to the UNDP. As the energy, transportation, and tourist sectors increase, the foundation of this framework—fisheries—is being transformed into a “more circular and bio-friendly ecosystem” to boost competitiveness.

With its six objectives and 192 initiatives, the ASEAN Economic Community Strategic Plan 2026–2030 seeks to increase resilience against outside shocks, such as President Trump’s tariffs from the United States. As part of ASEAN’s sustainability aim, the blue economy is one of ten goals that fit with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea for managing marine resources. Carbon stock evaluations and sustainable development plans around the area are further supported by recent initiatives such as the ASEAN Blue Carbon and Finance Profiling, which was started in collaboration with Japan and the UNDP.

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Challenges in Disputed Waters

Despite optimism, analysts warn that conflicts may hamper ASEAN’s Blue Economy Growth objectives in the South China Sea. Disputes in the area, where four ASEAN states share claims with China, have escalated; in 2024, the Philippines and China’s coast guard were at odds. China was recently criticized by the Philippines for “aggressive interference,” citing instances such as attacks with water cannons during research near the Spratly Islands. China’s yearly fishing prohibitions, which obstruct traditional fishing routes and infringe upon sovereignty, have also drawn criticism from Vietnam and the Philippines.

FACTS Asia‘s Julio Amador emphasized that to avoid political escalation, ASEAN must confront China’s unilateral activities. These conflicts worsen overfishing and marine degradation, endangering coastal livelihoods, according to Dindo Manhit of the Stratbase-ADR Institute. In 2023, the South China Sea’s fishing industry produced US$11 billion in exports, sustaining 119 million coastal livelihoods and 3.7 million jobs. But according to research by Sazlina Salleh of Universiti Sains Malaysia, 26% of the waterway’s fish stocks were overfished, and 21% had collapsed—far more than the global average.

International Development and Security Cooperation’s Chester Cabalza contended that these conflicts impede freedom of navigation, which slows the blue economy’s growth. Although he cautioned that procrastination might result in resource overexploitation and diminished climate resilience, Manhit highlighted the potential of marine renewable energy, such as offshore wind, to lessen dependency on fossil fuels. ASEAN’s 20% share of the world’s fisheries highlights how urgent it is to preserve marine stocks to secure long-term prosperity. Experts are calling for increased regional cooperation and coastal defense to preserve maritime sovereignty and sustainability.

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