The International Energy Agency’s new briefing suggests a dramatic shift ahead: Sustainable fuel use by 2035 could increase roughly fourfold from 2024 levels if current and announced policies are fully implemented. This is not a single-technology story; it includes biofuels, biogases, and low-emissions hydrogen — and it would reshape transport, shipping, aviation, and parts of industry over the next decade.

The Headline Numbers: What “Quadruple” Means in Practice

The IEA’s Delivering Sustainable Fuels analysis finds that global consumption of liquid and gaseous sustainable fuels could quadruple by 2035 compared with 2024 if policies already proposed or enacted are fully implemented. Under that pathway, sustainable fuels would supply roughly 10% of global road transport demand, 15% of aviation demand, and 35% of shipping fuel demand by 2035 — dramatic increases from today’s shares.

Those rises are driven by several components: scaling biofuels and biogases, rapid growth in low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels, and policy mandates (e.g., blending requirements and procurement rules) that push markets toward cleaner liquid and gaseous fuels.

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Which Fuels and Sectors Will Grow Fastest?

Transport is the principal near-term driver of demand for sustainable fuels to 2035, with heavy industry and power-sector uses expanding after 2030 as low-emissions hydrogen becomes more available.

• Aviation (SAF): Sustainable aviation fuel production is expanding quickly — IATA expected SAF production to double in 2025 to about 2 million tonnes, though that still represents a tiny fraction of total jet-fuel demand.
• Shipping: The IEA projects sustainable fuels could cover an estimated 35% of shipping fuel demand by 2035 under the fully-implemented policy scenario.
• Road transport: Sustainable fuels could supply around 10% of road transport demand by 2035 in the IEA pathway.
  

The IEA stresses that scaling requires investment, supply-chain diversification, and strong sustainability safeguards to avoid unintended consequences (land use change, biodiversity loss).

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Investment, Industry Moves, and Policy Signals

Meeting a fourfold rise will demand large capital flows and industry commitments. IEA and related analyses point to increased investment in low-emissions fuels as part of a broader surge in clean energy spending: energy-sector capital flows are projected to be over USD 3.3 trillion in 2025, with substantial shares directed to clean technologies, including low-emissions fuels.

Oil majors are already placing big bets on biofuels and SAF: a 2024/25 industry survey reported 40+ major projects by 2030 and potential capacity additions equivalent to hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of biofuel feedstock processing. Meanwhile, several countries (Brazil, India, Italy, Japan, and others) have publicly pledged or signalled ambition to scale sustainable fuels in line with IEA recommendations.

Policy examples also matter: Indonesia is considering SAF blending requirements (starting at 1% in 2026 and rising to 5% by 2035) to spur domestic production, illustrating how national mandates can seed local industries.

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Risks, Sustainability, Constraints, and Trade-Offs

A rapid push to quadruple sustainable fuel use is technically feasible but not risk-free. The main caveats the IEA highlights include supply-chain bottlenecks, feedstock competition with food and ecosystems, permitting and financing delays, and the current higher cost of many sustainable fuels relative to fossil equivalents.

Environmental safeguards are crucial: large-scale biofuel rollouts without protections can drive deforestation and biodiversity loss. Critics warn that ambitious pledges (e.g., rapid biofuel expansion) must include strict land-use, biodiversity, and social safeguards to avoid repeating past mistakes.

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What the IEA Says Needs to Happen Now

The IEA frames the pathway toward quadrupling as policy-dependent. Key near-term actions include: stronger mandates and procurement targets for SAF and renewable fuels, incentives for low-emissions hydrogen production and electrolyser deployment, clearer sustainability criteria and certification systems, and public-private finance mechanisms to de-risk early projects.

The agency also underlines international cooperation; for technology transfer, harmonised standards and cross-border trade in sustainable fuels, and robust monitoring to ensure greenhouse-gas benefits are real across life cycles.

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Why This Matters: Climate and Economic Implications

If sustainable fuels scale as the IEA projects, their uptake could be a critical bridging solution for hard-to-electrify sectors (aviation, shipping, some industrial processes), reducing lifecycle emissions where direct electrification is slow or impractical.

Economically, a growing sustainable-fuel industry could create value chains in feedstock collection (waste oils, residues), hydrogen production hubs, green ammonia, and e-fuel manufacturing — but those benefits depend on well-designed policies that steer investments toward low-emissions pathways and protect ecosystems.

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Final Thoughts

“Sustainable fuel use by 2035” as a global objective is within sight under the IEA’s scenario — but it is conditional. The quadrupling outcome is not automatic; it requires coherent policy packages, substantial investment, and rigorous sustainability governance. If those pieces fall into place, sustainable fuels could be a major pillar of decarbonisation in the coming decade — especially where electrification alone cannot deliver deep emissions cuts.

Short Data Table — Key Figures

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FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. What exactly does “sustainable fuel” mean in the IEA analysis?

The IEA uses “sustainable fuels” to cover a range of low-emissions liquid and gaseous fuels, including advanced biofuels, biogases, and hydrogen-derived fuels produced with low lifecycle emissions — subject to sustainability criteria.

2. How realistic is a fourfold increase by 2035?

Technically feasible under the IEA’s modelling, but it depends on fully implementing current and announced policies, scaling investments, and resolving feedstock and sustainability constraints. The IEA explicitly describes the pathway as conditional on those policy actions.

3. Will sustainable fuels make a big dent in global emissions?

They can significantly reduce emissions in sectors that are hard to electrify (aviation, shipping, some industries), but their climate benefit hinges on lifecycle emissions — and on avoiding land-use and biodiversity harms. Proper lifecycle accounting and safeguards are essential.

4. Who is investing in this shift?

Governments and major energy companies are increasing commitments: clean energy investment is rising (IEA projects USD 3.3 trillion in energy flows in 2025 with large clean allocations), and oil majors have announced dozens of biofuel/SAF projects toward 2030.

5. What are the main policy levers to accelerate sustainable fuel uptake?

Key tools include blending mandates and procurement targets (e.g., SAF mandates), low-carbon fuel standards, investment incentives for hydrogen and electrolysers, feedstock sustainability rules, and international cooperative frameworks for standards and trade.

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