Summer rainfall in Kerala has declined significantly, and there is currently a substantial shortfall in expected precipitation for April. The state of Kerala has reported a deficit of about 67% this April, leading to concerns regarding heat stress and water shortages in the present dry spell that is being experienced in all parts of the state. Weather experts believe that any future rain will primarily be localized or scattered as opposed to widespread precipitation.

What Is the Reason for Kerala to Face a Rainfall Deficit?

• Total rainfall deficit: Only 19.3 mm of rainfall has been experienced by Kerala against an expected average of 57.8 mm in April, reflecting a 67% rain deficit, which points towards the lack of effective pre-monsoon showers that would have cooled down the area and also maintained the water sources.
• Poor rainfall performance: Even the highest rainfall area, Pathanamthitta (42 mm), remains 58% below normal levels.
• Drought and temperature rises: Some districts, including Palakkad and Alappuzha, suffer from extreme rainfall deficits, leading to increased heat stress and higher water needs.
• Weather-related reasons: Meteorologists relate the current drought period to the changing weather pattern, along with less moisture availability, and even El Niño weather conditions.

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Which Districts in Kerala Are Facing the Worst Rainfall Deficits?

• Palakkad and Alappuzha: These two districts are facing the worst rainfall crisis in the state as they are witnessing an 83% shortfall in rainfall.
• Malappuram, Kottayam, and Thrissur: These districts are severely affected by the current rainfall crisis, as they have seen an average deficit of 77% to 81%. In such a scenario, soil moisture levels are reduced, increasing reliance on underground water sources.
• Pathanamthitta and Idukki: Although Pathanamthitta and Idukki districts have witnessed relatively high rainfall compared to other districts, they are still considered deficient areas.
• Statewide rainfall reduction: It must be remembered that it is not just one region of Kerala that has seen reduced rainfall, but rather that there has been a widespread deficiency across the state during the pre-monsoon season.

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Predictions by Experts on the Future of Rain and Temperature

Kerala, currently in an extended drought period, will see highly variable and unpredictable rainfall for the following 7–10 days. According to expert Rajeevan Erikkulam, showers, if they occur, will be isolated and not widespread across large areas of Kerala. The India Meteorological Department also states that El Niño may negatively impact monsoon rainfall through most of India, increasing fears over water availability and a threat to agricultural production. Many areas of Kerala have seen extreme temperatures, with Palakkad reaching over 40°C repeatedly, compounding the ongoing drought.

Reduction of summer rainfall in Kerala reflects a departure from expected seasonal weather patterns, creating challenges for water supplies, agriculture, and people in daily life. While some relief may come later this month, experts warn that rain will be sparse and erratic with continuing dry conditions throughout Kerala.

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