Hormuz crisis could trigger a global food emergency as it is responsible for handling almost 20-30% of global oil trade, according to the U.S.’s EIA (Energy Information Administration). As of early 2026, increasing hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, including a blockade of any vessels suspected to be bound for Iranian ports, have disrupted the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and fertilizer.

Estimates for the Food and Agriculture Organization show that currently, somewhere between 30-35% of the world’s crude oil; 20% of the world’s natural gas, and as much as 30% of the world’s fertilizer are being affected by these disruptions, raising fears of a potential global food crisis.

Why Is the Strait of Hormuz So Critical to Global Food Systems?

The Hormuz crisis could trigger a global food emergency, as it disrupts the fuel required for engaged agricultural activity (i.e., machinery, overhead irrigation, transportation). Fertilizer, particularly nitrogen-based (converted from natural gas), is necessary for maintaining crop yields. Disruption of supply chains will create adverse repercussions for farms around the world.

Nations such as India, China, and large portions of Africa depend on importing fertilizer and energy. Any failure of these inputs to meet demand would have an immediate negative impact on farm production.

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Supply Bottlenecks Persist Despite Ceasefire Hopes

Even though the fragile ceasefire has temporarily boosted optimism, shipping operations have not returned to usual levels. Issues related to insurance coverage, security, and geopolitical factors have prevented ships from moving out of the Gulf area.

According to experts from FAO, this crisis is moving towards a more perilous stage. Previous shipments have been received at their destinations, implying that new shortages will soon arise.

A delayed crisis develops in such circumstances:

• Current markets seem calm because stocks are available
• However, shortages may occur within weeks, particularly for fertilizers and fuel

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Why Have Food Prices Not Been Rising Already?

Indeed, food prices in the global market still seem relatively stable for the moment.

According to the FAO Food Price Index, increases are quite small owing to:

• A high stock position globally
• Good yields in 2025
• Short-term supply buffering

Nonetheless, the situation might be deceptive.

As farmers begin making their planting decisions, considering high fertilizer prices, many might:

• Cut fertilizer applications
• Choose different crops that are less fertilizer-intensive
• Postpone planting cycles

This will likely lead to shortages in yield in late 2026 and early 2027.

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The Energy-Food-Fertilizer Connection Explained

The Hormuz crisis could trigger a global food emergency, underscoring an important chain of dependency:

• Energy → Fertilizer production → Crop yields → Food supply
• High energy prices lead to high transportation and production costs.
• The shortage of natural gas affects the production of fertilizers.
• Shortage of fertilizers results in low agricultural productivity.

Moreover, high energy prices also result in increased use of food products such as corn and sugarcane for fuel production.

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Global Exposure: Who is Most Vulnerable?

The effects may vary, but they are wide-ranging.

• Nations dependent on foreign imports (like Kenya and Nepal) experience price shocks right away
• Landlocked nations have higher transportation costs
• Emerging markets encounter inflation and currency problems
• Globally, farmers must cope with reduced margins

South Asia is beginning to see the initial signs with increased input costs impacting agricultural planning and pricing.

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Can It Turn Into a “Perfect Storm”?

According to experts, the current scenario can deteriorate further with new shocks:

• Environmental factors such as El Niño
• Restrictions on exports by leading producers
• Escalating political tensions

In previous instances, export restrictions have exacerbated global scarcity, and if that happens again, some nations may find themselves unable to afford necessary imports.

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Short-Term Vs Long-Term Perspectives

Short-term (0-3 months)

The markets remain stable thanks to the available stockpile, although there is growing pressure on the supply chain.

Medium-term (3-12 months)

Fertilizer shortage and rising costs affect agricultural production.

Long-term (> 1 year)

Global rise in food prices and continued disruption in supply.

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A Fragile System Under Pressure

The Hormuz crisis could trigger a global food emergency, not because there is a major food shortage today, but because there will be one in the future. Current food supplies can keep food flowing for a short period, but eventually agricultural output will decline while costs rise due to compounding inflation and policy responses such as export bans.

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FAQs

1. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so strategically important throughout the world?

Because it carries a large portion of oil and gas across the globe, it is very important for the delivery of food and energy sources.

2. In what way does the current situation influence food production?

The shortage of fuel and fertilizer affects the productivity of farmers and, as a result, causes an increase in prices.

3. When can the effect on food prices be seen?

The effect is supposed to become apparent in a couple of months.

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