Diesel’s long-standing hegemony in China’s transportation sector is being challenged by electric-powered large trucks. In the world’s largest crude-importing country, electric truck sales in China are rapidly gaining market share, thanks to substantial government subsidies and a rapidly expanding network of charging stations. Analysts are now projecting an earlier peak in China’s oil demand as a result of this surge, the expansion of LNG-powered trucks, and a slowing economy.

Electric Trucks Reshape the Market

According to Sublime China Information (SCI), the new company’s electric truck sales in China are expanding rapidly, with sales rising 175% year-over-year to 76,100 units in the first half of 2025, or approximately a quarter of all truck sales. More than 90% of this rise was driven by electric models, which are mainly employed for short-haul activities in steel mills, ports, and mines.

Analysts, such as SCI’s Xu Lei, have lowered their diesel demand projections by 1% to 2% due to this rapid adoption. After predicting that China’s oil demand would peak in 2026, Ye Lin of Rystad Energy now believes it may happen this year, citing the surprising surge in electric trucks. According to Rystad’s forecasts, the transportation sector, which accounts for two-thirds of China’s diesel consumption, is expected to use 40% less diesel by 2030, resulting in a 25% reduction in total consumption from 2024 levels. Similar to the previous year, SCI predicts a 6.3% decrease in diesel use this year, or 11.3 million tonnes.

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Infrastructure and Cost Advantages Drive Adoption

One of the main factors influencing the adoption of electric trucks is the quick development of charging infrastructure. There are currently more than 2,400 truck charging stations along industrial routes, like the 800-kilometer Shanxi-Shandong line that Teld opened in March 2025. Long-distance journeys, such as the 2,000-kilometer Beijing-to-Yunnan route, are made possible by notable advances in charging convenience, according to drivers like Li Shuai, a 38-year-old truck driver from Hebei. There are still issues, however, such as 90-minute charge times and limited charger availability in certain areas.

Cost advantages further enhance the appeal of electric trucks. When paired with reduced electricity costs, government subsidies of up to 95,000 yuan ($13,264) per vehicle, which were implemented in July 2024, gradually make electric trucks more cost-effective. Electric trucks are 15% less expensive than diesel trucks and 10% less costly than LNG trucks after a million kilometres, according to GL Consulting.

According to Sany, the second-largest electric truck manufacturer in China, reduced operating costs and growing infrastructure could propel electric vehicles to account for 70% to 80% of new sales in the next two to three years. According to SCI analyst Wang Neng, LNG truck sales, which are expected to reach 92,000 units in the first half of 2025, are 15% lower than they were a year ago due to a lack of refueling stations and rising fuel prices. China’s reliance on diesel is decreasing as electric trucks continue to gain momentum, signaling a significant shift in the world’s energy landscape.

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