Global sea level rise may be greater than previously calculated, and a new study says earlier research got sea level rise wrong, mainly because the models they used just weren’t accurate enough. Now, scientists are saying sea levels are rising faster than we realized, and that’s a big deal for people living near the water. The team behind this research, including Philip Minderhoud from Wageningen University and Katharina Seeger, a PhD researcher, took a hard look at hundreds of older studies, published in Nature, basically rewrites how we measure sea level rise around the world.

Why Have Previous Sea Level Estimates Been Inaccurate?

The main reason for the inaccurate calculation of the sea level is the methodology adopted for the calculation of the sea level. In most of the previous studies, local sea level measurements were not considered, and instead, the data on the elevation of land were considered in relation to the global geoid models. These models calculate the sea level based on the gravity of the Earth and the Earth’s rotation.

Key Factors Behind the Underestimation

• Reliance on Geoid Models: The study found that 90% out of 385 studies used global geoid models rather than local sea level measurements, resulting in systematic inaccuracy.
• Average Global Difference: The study found that sea level in coastal areas may be underestimated by 24 to 27 centimeters on average, depending upon the geoid model used.
• Regional Discrepancies: The difference between estimated and actual sea level in some regions may be as high as 550 to 760 centimeters, showing how inaccurate the geoid modeling has been.
• Missing Ocean Dynamics: Winds, ocean currents, salinity, and temperature of seawater can all have an effect on sea level, but previous geoid modeling was found to be inadequate in considering all these factors.

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Regions Most Likely to be Impacted by the Climate Crisis

• Southeast Asia: Many of the densely populated deltas of Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are highly vulnerable to flooding due to their low elevation and high concentration of people living along the coast.
• Small Island Nations: Countries located in the Pacific Island region will see an accelerated loss of land and an increase in the salinity of their freshwater resources due to sea-level rise, as ocean water migrates inland.
• Coastal Agricultural Areas: Local coastal agriculture due to sea level rise has been reduced or will be reduced throughout Asia and Africa, in particular.

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What Do These Findings Mean for Future Climate Projections?

Basically, these findings raise concerns about how big climate groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been predicting sea-level rise. Right now, people expect the world’s oceans to creep up by anywhere from 28 to 100 centimeters by the end of the century.

As scientists sharpen their measurements, leaders will probably have to rethink how they handle risks and plan for the future, because global sea level rise may be greater than previously calculated, and coastlines everywhere could change faster than anyone expected.

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