Winter crop planting is in peril due to a severe Russian drought that is predicted to significantly hamper the 2025 grain harvest. Analysts and farming executives have expressed worries about low sowing rates, particularly in the world’s leading wheat exporter, casting a pall over the country’s agricultural prospects.

According to the SovEcon consultancy, wheat sowing rates in Russia have reached their minimum level in 11 years. This fall in planting rates leads to considerable dangers to next year’s wheat crop, with experts worrying that the drought may dramatically minimize yields. Following the announcement of this information, Chicago wheat prices rose to their most significant level in over two weeks before falling again due to worries about global demand.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the scenario for winter crops is progressively deteriorating. Rylko said at an agricultural investor conference that the conditions might lead to a “dramatic scenario.” He cited the Volgograd and Saratov districts, Russia’s fourth and sixth major grain-producing areas, as being particularly heavily hit by the drought.

Concerns of Agricultural Experts

Kirill Yershov, CEO of Aeon Agro, a farming company that cultivates over 240,000 hectares in the Penza and Saratov regions, shared the same concerns. He emphasised the issues facing the wheat harvest in the coming year, noting that many farmers have curtailed their planting due to soil moisture deficiency. “The situation is very critical,” Yershov said. “We planted less than last year. Many farmers are planting less.”

Similarly, Alexander Pryanishnikov, a Shchelkovo Agrokhim representative and manufacturer of plant protection goods, observed extraordinary seeding rates in the Volga agricultural areas of Penza, Saratov, and Mordovia. Pryanishnikov stated, “In all the years I’ve dealt with winter crops, I have never seen such a disheartening situation.”

Russia’s agricultural sector has been coping with drastic weather events that have retarded its recent triumph in wheat production despite Western sanctions. Early spring frosts, droughts, and torrential storms have damaged Russia’s important crop regions in 2024. Extreme drought conditions hit the southern and Volga River areas especially hard in September, which is projected to last another two weeks. At the same time, several grain-producing regions of Siberia have declared emergencies owing to heavy rains.

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Declining Harvest Projections

In recent years, Russia’s agricultural output has fluctuated. Following a record grain harvest of 158 million metric tonnes in 2022, the country’s production fell to 148 million tonnes by 2023. The official prognosis predicts a further fall to 132 million tonnes this year.

The impact of the Russian Drought has forced IKAR to reduce its wheat harvest prediction for Russia from 82.2 million metric tonnes to 81.8 million tonnes. Similarly, the total grain crop projection has been reduced from 125 million to 124.5 million tonnes. As the drought continues to risk winter crop sowing, the forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest in 2025 remains dubious.

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