According to a recent study that was published in Ecology Letters on May 4, 2025, as climate change picks up speed, the typical noctule bat (Nyctalus noctula), a species that is widely distributed throughout Europe, is predicted to move its hibernation area northeastward. The study mapped the future of bat hibernation zones under several global warming scenarios by combining physiological data and climatic models, under the direction of Kseniia Kravchenko of the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW) in Germany. Rising temperatures are transforming bat hibernation zones and shifting them across the continent.

The results demonstrated that winters might shorten by 1.4 to 41 days and warm by 0.11°C to 2.35°C under scenarios SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5, leading to movements in the hibernating area of 78 km to 732 km. Over two centuries, a total northward movement of over 990 kilometres is anticipated. Depending on the emissions, the northeastern extension would raise the number of possible hibernating zones by 5.8% to 14.2% between 2019 and 2099.

Disappearance of Hibernation in Southern Europe

Additionally, the study predicted that increasing winter temperatures in southern Europe may eliminate the necessity for hibernation. Temperatures in these warmer regions will rise, where bats may continue hunting all winter, potentially avoiding hibernation. This change suggests a fundamental alteration in seasonal behavior in addition to a regional redistribution.

According to earlier studies, common noctules can change their ranges by hundreds of kilometers in decades. This implies that bats may keep moving northeastward to correspond with changing hibernation zones as new locations become thermally appropriate. Rising temperatures are transforming bat hibernation zones, allowing bats to expand their range and forcing adaptation under ecological stress.

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Ecological and Biological Implications

While temperatures favorable enough to expand into new hibernation sites are possible, other required conditions, like available roost sites and prewinter food, could be unavailable across new territories, which could create ecological stress.

In addition to saving energy, hibernation is necessary for minimizing predation threats and preserving water during the cold winter months. The inability to utilize long-term torpor in new, warmer areas may impact survival, reproduction, and population stability.

The research highlights the way climate change is modifying habitats and redefining behavioral patterns, which could impact whole ecosystems reliant on species such as the common noctule.

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