As the planet heats up, nature’s recovery rate declines, and that old idea that ecosystems quickly shuffle around as the climate changes doesn’t quite hold up anymore. A new study in Nature Communications (published February 3, 2026) shows that species turnover has slowed in many places over the last century, even though the environment is shifting faster than ever. If you’re not familiar, “turnover” means how fast one set of species vanishes and gets replaced by new ones in a community. Scientists expected this to accelerate as habitats change due to warming, but the data indicate otherwise.

Century-Long Data Reveals Surprising Trend

A team from Queen Mary University of London examined biodiversity records from the past 100 years, covering forests, rivers, and oceans. They used time-series data, such as those in the BioTIME database, and examined what happened before and after the environment began to intensify its changes, particularly from the 1970s onward.

The findings show that the rate of species turnover over short stretches of one to five years slowed down in many more places than it sped up, about one-third slower. Co-author Axel Rossberg said they didn’t expect the drop to be that large, so, instead of ecosystems scrambling to keep up with climate change, it appears nature’s recovery is lagging.

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Ecosystem Types Show Varied Patterns

To determine whether the pattern persisted across ecological systems, scientists conducted the same study on benthic organisms, fish, birds, and mixed communities. The slowdown had been replicated across mixed, bird, and benthic communities, indicating a universal pattern. The study’s lead author, Emmanuel C. Nwankwo, referred to nature as a “self-repairing engine” that continuously replaces old species with new ones, yet this engine appears to have slowed.

Fish communities, however, showed no consistent trend for the issues. There are several reasons for this, but some researchers have noted that fisheries exploitation may affect communities.

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Nature’s Engine Slowed by Environmental Degradation

Recent changes in species composition are driven more by internal ecosystem dynamics than by climate change. Researchers believe that slower species turnover is linked to environmental degradation, with fewer species in regional species pools due to habitat loss, pollution, and landscape fragmentation.

The researchers warn that a reduction in turnover momentum may make ecosystems less resilient to future climate shocks, potentially creating landscapes susceptible to abrupt regime shifts. In addition, rather than an indication of ecosystem stability, the slowdown in ecosystems indicates that nature’s recovery rate declines, and scientists are concerned that ecosystems will lose their ability to adapt in a rapidly warming climate.

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