A new whitepaper from Smart Freight Centre (SFC) India, TERI, and IIM-Bangalore paints a pretty stark picture: if India sticks to business as usual, there would be a 400% rise in India’s freight emissions by 2047. That’s a massive jump, mostly because freight demand is exploding, thanks to a booming economy, the rise of e-commerce, and all the new infrastructure going up. Unless India gets serious about tracking emissions and rolls out policy changes across logistics, industry, and energy, this trend isn’t slowing down.

Right now, freight transport already makes up a big chunk of India’s transport emissions, with road freight leading the pack, and the report doesn’t sugarcoat things. Patchy accounting, inconsistent emission factors, and incomplete reporting make it almost impossible to develop effective solutions. Without better data and coordinated policies, freight could become the primary barrier to India’s Net Zero 2070 goal.

What’s Driving the Surge in India’s Freight Emissions?

The report projects 400% rise in India’s freight emissions by 2047, which is a function of increasing freight demand, dependence on fossil fuels, particularly diesel, and the absence of integrated policies to address emissions in the supply chain.

• Road freight accounts for ~85% of freight transport and is the primary source of freight-related emissions.
• Logistics demand (in billion tonne-kilometres) is expected to increase to ~7,260 BTKM by 2030-31, from 2,682 BTKM in 2019-20.
• The lack of standardized emissions reporting means that firms employ different approaches and factors, thereby reducing the strength of comparisons and making it difficult to address emissions.

India’s transport sector is already a significant contributor to the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, estimated at nearly 14% by the International Energy Agency, with road transport accounting for the majority of these emissions.

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The Necessity of Accurate Emissions Measurement

Measurement is essential for making the transition to clean freight systems, according to a primary conclusion of the SFC–TERI report:

• Freight emissions must be measured to establish reliable, comparable records using worldwide standards, including ISO 14083 and the GLEC Framework.
• Using data-driven reporting mechanisms and emissions factor information specific to India will provide decision-makers and organisations in the supply chain with clear baselines for developing programmes, assessing success or failure, and supporting accurate reporting.
• Reporting of emissions across countries is currently disjointed due to the absence of frameworks for accurate reporting; therefore, it is difficult to hold businesses accountable and to incorporate freight decarbonisation into national climate plans.

Also Read: Sustainability In Logistics: Cutting Freight Emissions At Scale

Policy Gaps and Institutional Challenges

The freight sector faces some tough, deep-rooted problems, including a 400% rise in India’s freight emissions by 2047. It’s all over the place- thousands of small and mid-sized fleet operators run things, but most don’t have solid digital tools or shared systems, and data is a mess, too. Companies struggle to report accurately, and policymakers can’t rely on the numbers they get.

Tying everything together with major initiatives like the National Logistics Policy and PM Gati Shakti sounds promising, but in reality, the pieces still don’t fit. There’s talk about freight corridors, shifting more goods onto rail and waterways, and moving toward zero-emission tech. All good ideas, but no one has managed to integrate them across the whole country.

Here’s a simple comparison table to contextualise India’s freight emissions surge projections with broader transport sector trends:

Notes: Some forecast values may vary depending on policy effectiveness and technology adoption.

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Clean Freight – Pathway to a Sustainable Logistics Future

Experts advocate numerous interventions to keep India’s freight carbon emissions from continuing on a business-as-usual trajectory. These interventions suggested by experts include:

• Develop harmonized emissions accounting frameworks for credible measurement and reporting of freight emissions.
• Develop digital monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems to enhance the ability of all modes and stakeholders to track emissions.
• Modernize fleets to include zero-emission trucks (battery-electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, etc.) and cleaner fuels.
• Invest in modal shifts to rail and inland waterways to decrease dependence upon road freight.
• Integrate policies across ministries and establish consistency of policies with national climate goals (Net Zero 2070).

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Transitioning to Clean Freight in India

At their current trajectory of “doing nothing,” a 400% rise in India’s freight emissions by 2047 is possible. This would be a double threat to both climate and public health. The underlying fragmentation (of how emissions are measured), ineffective accounting systems, and policy gaps that prevent intervention based on solid information all contribute to this challenge. To align economic growth with the Paris Agreement on climate change, freight-related emissions in India must be prioritized.

By combining robust, standardized emissions frameworks, digital MRV tools, and clean technologies, India will be able not only to quantify but also manage and mitigate freight emissions. With consistent and coordinated policy development and ongoing cooperation among institutions, India has an opportunity to create a model of sustainable growth in its freight sector and achieve substantive progress toward its Net Zero by 2070.

Also Read: India’s First Carbon Trading Programme Set To Launch Soon

FAQs

1. Why is the growth in India’s freight emissions so high?

Freight volumes are growing rapidly, there is no standardized accounting of emissions, and clean technologies are not widely adopted; fossil fuels still power most freight.

2. What is emissions accounting, and why is it important?

It is a process of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas emissions. Without standardized accounting, India cannot compare or control its logistics emissions.

3. Can clean technologies make a difference in cutting future freight emissions?

Yes, because zero-emission trucks, electric-vehicle adoption, modal shift, and digital MRV technologies are critical to mitigating emissions growth.

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