Due to record March heat in the US, we are seeing rapidly diminishing mountain snowpack levels. The accumulation of snow that typically occurs at this time of year has actually been lost earlier in the season than ever recorded before, thanks to warm weather and a very weak wintertime snow pack. The combination of the warm temperatures with this weak pack has raised alarm about potential shortages of water, as well as possible increased risk of wildfires due to dry fuel conditions, and about long-term climate change impacts on this region.

The Scale of the Reduction in Snowpack Levels in the Western US

• Snowpack loss in Colorado Rockies: Warming increased temperature up to 30°F (16-17°C) above normal, causing faster melting and advancing the maximum snow accumulation period by about a month, from early April to early March.
• Sierra Nevada snow-water ratio decrease: There was an abrupt decline in snowpack levels from 52% of normal on March 1 to 21% on March 24, while the monthly snow ratio averaged 22% of normal.
• Consequences for the Colorado River basin: Snowpack levels in both upper and lower basins have hit their lowest records, putting at risk the water supply for over 35 million residents in seven states of the United States.
• Proof of the long-term trend: NOAA reported that western US snowpack has experienced a 15-30% reduction since the mid-20th century, with warming winter seasons and earlier melting cycles becoming increasingly common.

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Immediate Effects on Water Supply and the Environment

• Reduced river flow rates: Since snow serves as a water resource, melting will reduce river discharge from places such as the Colorado River by summer.
• Higher risk of wildfires: Reduced soil moisture content resulting from early snow melt increases wildfire season by a few months; research indicates that large-scale fires have increased two to three times since the 1980s.
• Agriculture: The Western region of the US contributes more than 50% of all fruit, nuts, and vegetable produce for the country, and hence any reduction in the water supply can affect agricultural yields and prices.
• Lower hydropower capacity: With low water levels in hydroelectric dams, electricity production capabilities may be affected; for instance, the Hoover Dam’s power production capabilities have reduced by up to 25% in recent times.

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What Makes This Current Heat Wave Different? What Does It Mean for Us Moving Forward?

For climate experts, this heat wave in March that melted away the snowpack so rapidly is considered “almost impossible” without human-induced climate change, according to attribution studies showing that global warming has increased the frequency, strength, and length of these heat events occurring in the early parts of the year, shaped and created by humans. Today, winter is warming faster than any other season in many locations across the United States, which is fundamentally changing the way we receive snow from year to year, as well as how we store water throughout the seasons.

Record March heat in the US is much more than an anomalous event but rather a major warning sign of increasingly unpredictable climate instability that will create more challenges for the western United States during the upcoming summer months, leading to drought conditions, stressed ecosystems, and wildfires.

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