In the first half of 2025, power-sector emissions in India fell again by 1% annually, only the second such decrease in almost 50 years. According to a Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) study for Carbon Brief, the decrease was primarily caused by record increases in clean energy capacity and very mild weather. With indications that India may be headed for an earlier-than-expected low in power-sector emissions, this reduction points to a possible turning point for one of the fastest-growing energy markets in the world.

Key Drivers Behind the Decline

Power-sector emissions in India fell again, and several factors caused this unusual decrease in power-sector emissions:

• Strong growth in renewable energy: India’s non-fossil capacity increased by 69% to 25.1 gigawatts (GW) between January and June 2025. It is anticipated that this development will produce close to 50 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, significantly lowering dependency on fossil fuels.
• Weather impact: Between March and May, unusually mild temperatures and 42% more rainfall than typical reduced the need for electricity, especially for cooling. The production of hydropower also increased, contributing to the renewable supply.
• Decreased reliance on fossil fuels: Despite a 9TWh rise in total power generation, fossil fuel generation fell by 29TWh, indicating that cleaner sources were successfully able to meet demand growth.
• Oil demand stagnation: The general slowdown in emissions was exacerbated by the halt in the growth of oil consumption.

According to CREA’s analysis, 15% of the decrease in fossil fuel-based generation was due to increased hydropower output, 20% to the quick deployment of clean energy, and 65% to slower demand growth. All of these factors combined to change India’s energy mix rapidly.

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Implications for India’s Energy Transition

The reduction in emissions has wider ramifications for India’s long-term energy and climate policy:

• Potential for an early peak: According to CREA, assuming renewable energy growth continues and power demand increases at the anticipated rates, India’s power-sector emissions may peak before 2030. This is noteworthy because traditionally, the sector has been responsible for almost half of the growth in the nation’s emissions.
• Infrastructure pressures: Government infrastructure investment has led to a significant increase in emissions from the manufacturing of steel and cement, despite encouraging trends in clean energy. This suggests that industrial emissions are still a problem even though the electricity industry is becoming greener.
• National targets: By 2030, India aims to add 500 GW of clean energy capacity, a highly ambitious objective. The recent spike in non-fossil additions indicates that, with continued momentum, the goal is achievable.
• Policy and investment opportunities: The change emphasizes the significance of sustained investment in hydropower, wind, and solar energy, as well as steps to enhance demand management and energy efficiency.

This is a pivotal time for India’s energy landscape, as favorable conditions and robust renewable energy growth have enabled a significant reduction in power-sector emissions.

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