A new study warns that about 4 billion people may live under extreme heat by 2050, driven by climate change, which is raising global temperatures, increasing the number of people at risk from heat. Researchers at the University of Oxford found that if the earth warms by 2°C, above pre-industrial levels, about 3.79 billion people, around 41% of the world’s expected population, may often experience very hot temperatures by the middle of the century. This is a big jump from the 1.54 billion (23%) who were in this situation back in 2010. The study says we need to act faster to adapt and reduce the problem to avoid widespread harm to health, the economy, and society.

Rising Heat Exposure: The Numbers

The expected rise in heat exposure is enormous, and the number of people affected by extreme heat could nearly double by 2050 if global warming reaches 2°C. Back in 2010, just under a quarter of the world’s population lived in areas with such intense heat. However, the new study projects that this number will rise to nearly half by mid-century.

This rise is primarily due to demographic growth in subtropical and tropical regions, such as South Asia, Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia, where high temperatures already exist, and global warming is making them even hotter. Populous countries, such as India, Nigeria, and Indonesia, are expected to significantly increase the global number of people affected.

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Health, Infrastructure, and Economic Impacts

Very hot weather poses a health risk and can increase cases of heat-related illnesses, including heatstroke, dehydration, and heart problems. Vulnerable people, such as older adults, children, and outdoor workers, are at greater risk because they may lack access to cooling technologies.

Beyond health risks, rising very hot temperatures will increase energy demand and the need for cooling; what was once seasonal may become year-round in many areas. Current building designs, especially in cooler climates, often lack adequate ventilation or effective heat-reduction measures, which means buildings could trap heat, making living conditions worse.

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We Need to Adapt and Reduce the Problem Now

The Oxford study highlights that we need to take significant steps to adapt, such as building stronger infrastructure and making cooling accessible to everyone, well before warming reaches 1.5 °C, the limit set by the Paris Agreement. Homes in many areas may soon require air conditioning or other cooling systems to remain livable.

Experts also say it is essential to quickly reduce carbon emissions to limit warming and reduce the number of people worldwide exposed to extreme heat. If we don’t reduce emissions rapidly, it will not only increase the number of people suffering from heat stress but also worsen problems in areas such as health, worker productivity, agriculture, and migration. An estimated 4 billion people may live under extreme heat by 2050, underscoring the seriousness of the problem and the urgent need for collective climate action.

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