The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) report, published on December 9, 2024, reveals that 77% of Earth’s land has dried between 1990 and 2020, marking an alarming increase in aridity over the past three decades. The extent of global drylands expanded by over 4.3 million square kilometers during this time, growing to an area about one-third larger than India. Today, more than 40% of Earth’s surface is classified as drylands.

Increasing Drylands and Global Impact

According to the research, 3% of the world’s humid regions may turn into drylands by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced. The report, which was unveiled at the 16th UNCCD meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, further elaborates that 77% of Earth’s land has dried, exacerbating environmental and societal challenges.

Impact on Populations and Ecosystems

There are currently 2.3 billion people living in drylands, having increased in the last three decades. By the year 2100, this number may increase to 5 billion in the worst-case climate. According to the study, 96% of Europe, portions of the western United States, Brazil, Asia, and central Africa were among the areas specifically impacted by the drying trend.

“South Sudan and Tanzania have the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, with China experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands to drylands,” the report stated.

Asia and Africa, home to about half of the world’s dryland population, feature heavily inhabited regions such as California, Egypt, eastern and northern Pakistan, India, and northeastern China. Under high-emission scenarios, significant dryland expansion is expected in the Mediterranean, the Midwestern United States, southern Africa, and Australia.

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Permanent Shift: Aridity vs. Drought

The gap between short-term droughts and long-term aridity was highlighted in the paper. UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw emphasized the seriousness of the situation:

“Unlike droughts—temporary periods of low rainfall—aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation. Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost.”

Thiaw referred to the drying trend as an “existential threat” and stated that the analysis offers unambiguous scientific proof of this emergency. “The drier climates now affecting vast areas across the globe will not return to how they were, and this change is redefining life on Earth,” he said.

The results highlight how urgently international action is required to slow down climate change and control the effects of growing arid regions.

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