Amazon Soy Moratorium collapse could trigger one of the biggest setbacks for rainforest conservation in recent decades, according to a new study published in Science. Researchers estimate that the end of the Amazon Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement that successfully curbed deforestation for nearly 20 years, could result in at least 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) of additional forest loss in Brazil by 2036. The projected destruction would release approximately 745 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), equivalent to Canada’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.

Introduced in 2006, the moratorium prevented major soy traders from buying or financing soy grown on Amazon land deforested after July 2008. The agreement reduced deforestation-linked soy expansion from nearly one-third of annual growth to almost zero, making it one of the world’s most successful voluntary environmental commitments.

How the Amazon Soy Moratorium Changed Forest Conservation

The Amazon Soy Moratorium was introduced after concerns that expanding soybean cultivation was accelerating rainforest destruction. Under the agreement, leading soy traders refused to source soy produced on newly deforested Amazon land.

The results were remarkable.

• According to researchers, soy expansion into newly deforested areas virtually disappeared after the agreement took effect.
• Tiago Reis of WWF-Brazil, one of the study’s co-authors, said the moratorium not only protected forests but also improved confidence among international buyers by assuring them that Brazilian soy was not contributing to Amazon deforestation.

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Why the Agreement Collapsed

Despite its environmental success, the voluntary pact came under increasing political and legal pressure.

• Soy farmers filed a US$200 million lawsuit against participating traders, while Brazil’s antitrust authorities launched an investigation over allegations that the agreement functioned as a cartel.
• Meanwhile, states including Mato Grosso introduced laws removing tax incentives for companies that adopted environmental sourcing standards exceeding legal requirements.

Although some of these measures are still being challenged in Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court, researchers say the moratorium had effectively collapsed by January 2024.

Amazon Soy Pact Collapse Could Accelerate Forest Loss

Researchers warn that the Amazon Soy Moratorium collapse could have consequences extending far beyond soybean production.

• The study estimates that the projected forest loss represents roughly 17% of all deforestation recorded across the Brazilian Amazon during the past decade.

Particular concern surrounds the vast areas of undesignated public forests, which remain vulnerable to illegal land grabbing and agricultural expansion. While cattle ranching often begins the process of occupying forest land, researchers note that soy cultivation remains the strongest indirect economic driver because of its high market value.

The findings come at a sensitive time.

• After President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office in 2023, Brazil recorded its lowest Amazon deforestation rate in a decade during the first half of 2024, raising hopes for stronger forest protection.

However, researchers fear that the collapse of the soy moratorium could undermine those gains.

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Researchers Call for Stronger Global Action

The research team, from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, DePaul University, and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, argues that voluntary commitments alone are no longer enough.

They recommend stricter enforcement against illegal deforestation within Brazil, while urging major soy importers, including the European Union and China, to strengthen zero-deforestation sourcing requirements. Banks and financial institutions are also encouraged to require stronger environmental commitments from companies they finance.

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