Coastal cities have long been centres of growth and development, but these once-thriving locations are increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Megacities like Mumbai witnessed the highest rise in sea levels, and coastal cities around the world are particularly vulnerable as global temperatures rise. Rising sea levels pose extraordinary dangers of flooding and storm surges, threatening human lives and property.

According to a report published by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy, Mumbai witnessed highest rise in sea levels (4.44 cm) among 15 Indian coastal cities from 1987 to 2021. The study covers 15 Indian coastal towns and villages, providing data on sea level fluctuations under historical and future climatic scenarios. Mumbai is trailed by Haldia (2.726 cm), Visakhapatnam (2.381 cm), Kochi (2.213 cm), Paradip (0.717 cm), and Chennai (0.679 cm).

Under all scenarios, sea levels will continue to rise until the end of the century in all 15 cities and towns, as Mumbai witnessed highest rise in sea levels. Even in a medium-emission scenario, sea levels in Mumbai, Panaji, Udupi, Mangalore, Kozhikode, Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram, and Kanniyakumari would rise by 76.2 cm, 75.5 cm, 75.3 cm, 75.2 cm, 74.9 cm, and 74.7 cm, respectively, by 2100.

The study also investigates potential flooding zones in these cities based on the IPCC’s (IPCC) medium- and high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100.

The SSP scenarios investigate how socioeconomic factors like population, education, and urbanisation may influence greenhouse gas emissions throughout the next century, consequently affecting climate change. The study looked at Tier I cities (Chennai and Mumbai), Tier II cities (Thiruvananthapuram, Kochi, Mangaluru, Visakhapatnam, Kozhikode, and Haldia), and towns (Kanniyakumari, Panaji, Puri, Udupi, Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam).

According to the report, by 2040, more than 10% of the land in Mumbai, Yanam, and Thoothukudi, 5%-10% in Panaji and Chennai, and 1%-5% in Kochi, Mangalore, Visakhapatnam, Haldia, Udupi, Paradip, and Puri will be inundated due to rising sea levels.

Under the high-emission scenario, Mangalore, Haldia, Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam will have a more significant percentage in 2100 than Mumbai and Chennai. According to the research, critical areas that will be impacted are water, agriculture, forest and biodiversity, and health. The beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests are particularly vulnerable, affecting biodiversity and tourism.

To conclude this, climate change caused by fossil-fuel burning and greenhouse gas emissions has steadily raised world temperatures. As a result, sea surface temperatures and glacier melting have increased, raising sea levels and posing a significant threat to coastal communities worldwide, including those in India.

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