India records its third-driest June in more than a century as the southwest monsoon continues to underperform, raising concerns over agriculture, water availability, and food security. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country received only 92.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 157.7 mm during June, resulting in a 42% nationwide rainfall deficit. Even with rainfall expected on the final day of the month, June’s total is projected to reach only around 100 mm, making it the third driest June since 1927, behind only 2009 (87.5 mm) and 2014 (92.1 mm).

While the weak monsoon has sparked fears of a developing El Niño, the IMD remains optimistic that rainfall activity will improve during the first week of July.

June Rainfall Among the Lowest in 100 Years

The delayed and below-normal southwest monsoon has affected almost every region of the country. Data spanning nearly a century shows that June 2026 is likely to rank among India’s driest starts to the monsoon season.

Meteorologists note that widespread rainfall deficits across all major meteorological regions are uncommon and may indicate larger climatic influences at play.

Central India Faces the Biggest Rainfall Deficit

Among India’s four meteorological regions, Central India has been the worst affected, recording a 54% rainfall deficit during June.

Other regions also experienced significant shortfalls:

• Central India: 54% deficit
• East & Northeast India: 41% deficit
• Northwest India: 30% deficit
• South India: 28% deficit

The widespread nature of these deficits has increased concerns among meteorologists, particularly because all four regions are experiencing below-normal rainfall simultaneously.

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El Niño May Be Influencing the Monsoon

Climate experts believe the emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could already be affecting India’s southwest monsoon.

According to the US International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have continued warming rapidly, with El Niño approaching moderate strength.

Historically, El Niño events are associated with weaker monsoons in India because they alter global atmospheric circulation, often reducing moisture-bearing winds over the Indian subcontinent. However, experts caution that the relationship is complex, and other atmospheric factors also influence seasonal rainfall.

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IMD Expects Rainfall to Improve in July

Despite the fact that India records its third-driest June, there is cautious optimism for the weeks ahead.

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread and well-distributed rainfall during the first week of July, particularly across Central India, where rainfall shortages have been most severe.
• Improved rainfall would provide much-needed relief for farmers preparing for kharif crop sowing, replenish reservoirs, and ease concerns over water availability in several states.

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Why the Monsoon Matters

The southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remains critical for agriculture, drinking water supplies, hydropower generation, and rural livelihoods. A prolonged rainfall deficit can delay crop planting, reduce agricultural output, and increase pressure on food prices and water resources.

While forecasts suggest that rainfall activity could recover in early July, weather experts will continue monitoring monsoon progression and the evolution of El Niño conditions to assess their impact on the remainder of the rainy season.

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