The Southwest Monsoon (SWM) is expected to reach Kerala on May 27, four days ahead of its typical start date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon 2025 expected to arrive early, following a previous seasonal prognosis published on April 15 that predicted above-normal to surplus rainfall during the monsoon season; this latest forecast was issued on May 10, 2025.
IMD’s most recent report from May 11 states that by May 13, the monsoon may spread into the Nicobar Islands, the South Andaman Sea, and certain areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal. Over the following four to five days, greater development is anticipated across sections of the central Bay of Bengal, the whole Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea, the Maldives and Comorin region, and certain areas of the south Arabian Sea.
Cyclone Formation May Influence Early Stages
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast models predict that a low-pressure region may emerge in the Bay of Bengal. Both, however, point to a limited systemic escalation.
According to IMD, this low-pressure system will unlikely significantly impact the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala. Still, it may affect the Bay of Bengal’s early phases of development. Although a cyclone may emerge, it is probably too early to influence the start, according to Raghu Murtugudde, a retired University of Maryland professor and IIT Bombay professor. Depending on its severity, he continued, the system may drag the monsoon trough closer to the Andaman Sea sooner.
Murtugudde said that a cyclone crossing the Indian peninsula, which is uncommon, could require more soil moisture to be active over land.
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Onset May Not be Affected by Thunderstorms
Widespread thunderstorm activity in April and May has brought hail and rainfall to India, providing respite from heat waves and helping to cool certain land surfaces. The IMD anticipates that these conditions will persist in several regions of the nation until at least May 15.
Persistent western disturbances and multiple upper-air cyclonic circulations and troughs have been the leading causes of this enhanced activity. Murtugudde said that although land heating is usually crucial for the start of the monsoon, the current thunderstorms are too early to impede the monsoon 2025 expected to arrive early in Kerala.
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