Mexico’s Monarch butterfly population rises 64%, which is a big comeback for these famous travelers. On March 18, 2026, Mexico’s Ministry of Environment (SEMARNAT), the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP), and WWF Mexico shared the news: monarch colonies now cover 2.93 hectares, up from just 1.79 the year before. The main reason for the boost is better breeding conditions, less drought, and ongoing conservation work across North America.

What Factors Drove the 64% Increase in Monarch Butterflies?

• Favourable breeding conditions in the United States: Increased rainfall and less severe drought conditions in spring and summer 2025 helped to boost monarch populations as more eggs and larvae survived to adulthood.
• Improved migration conditions: Less severe drought conditions along monarch migration routes ensured that there was more food available to support monarch survival on their long migration journey.
• Expansion of occupied forest area: The Monarch butterfly colonies have expanded to 2.93 ha in 2025-26, up from 1.79 ha in 2024-25, which is one of the strongest increases in monarch populations in recent years.
• Long-term conservation impact: Since 2008, illegal logging within the core zones of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve has been virtually eliminated.

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How Does This Recovery Compare to Historical Trends?

• Recent low points: The population size of 0.9 ha in 2023-24 is the second lowest over the past 30 years. The all-time low population size of 0.67 ha occurred in 2013-14.
• Peak historical population size: The population size of 18.19 ha in 1996-97 indicates that the population size is still far from historical highs.
• Two consecutive years of growth: The trend of increasing population size indicates that it’s the second year of population growth.
• Forest degradation reduced significantly: There was only 2.55 ha of forest degradation between Feb 2024 and 2025, a decline of 32% compared to the impact of degradation the previous year.

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What Challenges and Conservation Efforts Remain Critical?

While there have been positive developments, the Monarch butterfly continues to face ecological challenges over the long term, and habitat loss in North America is still a significant threat to the long-term health of the Monarch butterfly due to milkweed (the main plant the Monarch butterfly requires to breed). Research shows that milkweed habitats in many areas of the United States have been reduced by over 80%; that means that fewer Monarchs mean lower reproduction rates.

Mexico’s Monarch butterfly population rises 64%, which is encouraging for the species’ potential for recovery. However, if these butterflies are to survive on a long-term basis, their habitats must remain protected, be climate-resilient, and the countries through which these Monarchs migrate must work together to protect this amazing migratory event.

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