Japan’s anticipated megaquake off its Pacific coast, which may cause deadly earthquakes and tsunamis, the destruction of hundreds of buildings, and possibly the deaths of nearly 300,000 people, could cause Japan’s economy to lose up to USD 1.81 trillion, according to a government assessment released on Monday.

The Cabinet Office report revealed that the new estimate, which took into account inflationary pressures and updated terrain and ground data that have expanded anticipated flood areas, resulted in a sharp increase in the expected economic damage from the previous estimate of 214.2 trillion yen to 270.3 trillion yen, or nearly half of the country’s total GDP.

High Risk of Nankai Trough Earthquake

The government of Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone nations in the world, estimates that there is an 80% likelihood of an earthquake of magnitude 8 to 9 along the Nankai Trough, a tremulous seabed zone.

In the worst-case scenario, 1.23 million people, or 10% of Japan’s entire population, would probably have to evacuate if there were a possible 9.0 magnitude earthquake in the region. According to the paper, if an earthquake strikes late at night during the winter, up to 298,000 people might perish from building collapses and tsunamis.

The trough, which is around 900 km (600 miles) long and located off the southwest Pacific coast of Japan, is where the Philippine Sea Plate is slipping beneath the Eurasian Plate. Megaquakes might occur approximately once every 100 to 150 years as a result of the building tectonic stresses.

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Rising Concerns After Recent Seismic Activity

Japan’s anticipated megaquake remains a concern. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck near the trough’s border last year, prompting Japan to issue its first-ever megaquake warning, stating the likelihood was a “relatively higher chance” of an earthquake as strong as magnitude 9 in the trough.

Over 15,000 people were killed in 2011 by a magnitude 9 earthquake that caused a deadly tsunami and the meltdown of three reactors at a nuclear power facility in northeastern Japan.

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